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Off-Topic => Off-Topic Community => Topic started by: Legend on Mar 15, 2015, 08:50 PM

Title: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Mar 15, 2015, 08:50 PM
Bold prediction I know. Here are the details.

Before 2020 ends we will find signs of alien life within our solar system. We don't have to actually see the life, just have very strong evidence saying it's there or was there. Doesn't have to still be alive.

Then before 2025 ends we will actually collect and/or dirrectly observe alien life bodies/cells. Again they can be long dead, but still 100% proof of life beyond Earth.


The major issue with this prediction is that space travel takes a long time. The probes that find signs of life will have needed to already be launched. What do you think?
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Max King of the Wild on Mar 15, 2015, 08:52 PM
Nope. Not in our life time
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Mar 15, 2015, 09:28 PM

Nope. Not in our life time


Do you think there isn't life out there, or do you just think we won't find it soon?
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Max King of the Wild on Mar 16, 2015, 04:44 AM

Do you think there isn't life out there, or do you just think we won't find it soon?
We can all agree the chances of life sustainable world is ridiculously minute. The chances of evolution occurring for intelligent life also ridiculously minute. The chances of those two occuring at two distinct point of space and eventually running into each other?
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: the-pi-guy on Mar 16, 2015, 04:51 AM

We can all agree the chances of life sustainable world is ridiculously minute. The chances of evolution occurring for intelligent life also ridiculously minute. The chances of those two occuring at two distinct point of space and eventually running into each other?

Different types of life. 
OP is about life of any form, not necessarily intelligent. 
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Mar 16, 2015, 05:16 AM

We can all agree the chances of life sustainable world is ridiculously minute. The chances of evolution occurring for intelligent life also ridiculously minute. The chances of those two occuring at two distinct point of space and eventually running into each other?


With very conservative estimates, there are 100 Earth like planets (same sun, same distance from the sun, warm but not too warm liquid water, etc.) for every single grain of sand on our planet. That's over 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 in the universe. Even with the odds of creation at 0.0000001%, that'd be 100 billion planets with life.


However, that's for the whole universe. My prediction is that we'll find life right here in our very solar system. There's a good chance Mars has it or had it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars#Possible_biosignatures

Here's some very recent info about it too: http://www.astrobio.net/news-exclusive/potential-signs-ancient-life-mars-rover-photos/, https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/life-mars-%E2%80%93-evidence-mounts

Europa, Io, and Titan are also pretty good bets. However just a few days ago, it was discovered that Saturn's moon Enceladus probably has the best environment for the creation and evolution of life: http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/deep-space/a14507/enceladus-saturn-moon-ocean/

The more and more we look, the more evidence we find of alien life in our own backyard. Plus Nasa has been given the greenlight to spend $1.3 billion on a mission to Europa with the main objective of finding life. If that works out on at least finding definitive signs of its existence, then my prediction is as good as gold.
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: the-pi-guy on Mar 16, 2015, 05:35 AM
The universe is stupidly* huge! 

*ridiculously gigantically massively............(hours later)........ massively
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Max King of the Wild on Mar 16, 2015, 06:11 AM

With very conservative estimates, there are 100 Earth like planets (same sun, same distance from the sun, warm but not too warm liquid water, etc.) for every single grain of sand on our planet. That's over 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 in the universe. Even with the odds of creation at 0.0000001%, that'd be 100 billion planets with life.


However, that's for the whole universe. My prediction is that we'll find life right here in our very solar system. There's a good chance Mars has it or had it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars#Possible_biosignatures

Here's some very recent info about it too: http://www.astrobio.net/news-exclusive/potential-signs-ancient-life-mars-rover-photos/, https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/life-mars-%E2%80%93-evidence-mounts

Europa, Io, and Titan are also pretty good bets. However just a few days ago, it was discovered that Saturn's moon Enceladus probably has the best environment for the creation and evolution of life: http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/deep-space/a14507/enceladus-saturn-moon-ocean/

The more and more we look, the more evidence we find of alien life in our own backyard. Plus Nasa has been given the greenlight to spend $1.3 billion on a mission to Europa with the main objective of finding life. If that works out on at least finding definitive signs of its existence, then my prediction is as good as gold.
Oh, I then disagree. No life in our solar system found anytime soon or at all.
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Mar 16, 2015, 06:41 AM
Aw I now understand what you were getting at. Let me continue.


We can all agree the chances of life sustainable world is ridiculously minute. The chances of evolution occurring for intelligent life also ridiculously minute. The chances of those two occuring at two distinct point of space and eventually running into each other?


With very conservative estimates, there are 100 Earth like planets (same sun, same distance from the sun, warm but not too warm liquid water, etc.) for every single grain of sand on our planet. That's over 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 in the universe. Even with the odds of creation at 0.0000001%, that'd be 100 billion planets with life.

Now let's say only 0.001% of those planets evolve advanced life. That's 1 million planets with life similar to ours. Once you get to advanced life, it stops being a game of percents and starts being a game of time. Humans first started being human about 50,000 years ago. Within that time period we've developed science and shot off to the stars. Imaging us 50,000 years in the future is just crazy!

The universe however is around 12 billion years old, with the Earth around 4 billion years old. If one of those million planets reached advanced life just a fraction sooner than us, they could be millions of years more advanced than us. They'd have vast empires covering their entire galaxies. We'd on Earth be able to easily see signs of their existence. This is all statistcs using numbers orders of magnetude lower than our lowest predictions.

Except we've yet to see any signs of these huge alien empires. This is called the fermi paradox. Either life on Earth is the only life, life on Earth is one of the most advanced lifes, something stops aliens from getting more advanced, or alien civilizations are too advanced for us to even notice they exist. The probibility of two life forms being close by each other doesn't matter.
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: the-pi-guy on Mar 16, 2015, 06:54 AM
We really don't know how rare life is. 
We have some idea of some factors that play a part in life, but even many of these ideas are subject to changes.  If we look at the Goldilocks zone, the planet being of the "right" temperature.  This is based off our preconceived notions of life and certain planetary conditions.  The conditions can vary wildly though.  I would even say each planet could have its own Goldilocks zone based on its disposition. I would wager than Venus and Mars would have different zones because of their atmosphere, plus there is the potential of other heat sources barring the sun, such as a planet. 
Then we consider that life could use something other than water and carbon as its building blocks, and certainly more examples I haven't thought of yet. 
Etc, etc.  There are lots of factors that we have an idea about and almost certainly factors that we don't even know about.  Life might be more common than we ever dreamed. 

Then we go to the fact that all life on Earth seems related, so based on that it might be incredibly rare, but even that I think might have other possible answers. 
Perhaps new life is *common* but dies out from competition very quickly or some other reason. 
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Apr 08, 2015, 04:11 AM
http://news.yahoo.com/signs-alien-life-found-2025-nasas-chief-scientist-212655192.html

Oh wow haha. Nasa's chief scientist just agreed with my prediction!

I bet 1 billion credits I'll/we'll be right.
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: BasilZero on Apr 08, 2015, 04:15 AM
Alien chicks!?

Spoiler for Hidden:
(I think we'll find some sort of life form but I dont expect it to be intelligent)
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Apr 09, 2015, 03:04 AM

Alien chicks!?

Spoiler for Hidden:
(I think we'll find some sort of life form but I dont expect it to be intelligent)



Yeah I wouldn't even expect it to have brains.

Also: Complex Organic Molecules Discovered in Infant Star System. Hints that the building blocks of the chemistry of life are universal (http://www.eso.org/public/news/eso1513/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+EsoTopNews+%28ESO+Top+News%29)

Just face it guys, I'm winning this prediction :)
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: BasilZero on Apr 10, 2015, 12:30 AM

Yeah I wouldn't even expect it to have brains.

Also: Complex Organic Molecules Discovered in Infant Star System. Hints that the building blocks of the chemistry of life are universal (http://www.eso.org/public/news/eso1513/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+EsoTopNews+%28ESO+Top+News%29)

Just face it guys, I'm winning this prediction :)


But I didnt deny existence of life....
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: DD_Bwest on Jul 06, 2015, 06:35 PM
Edt: not true. See next post

Philae comet could be home to alien life, say scientists | Science | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/jul/06/philae-comet-could-be-home-to-alien-life-say-top-scientists)


The comet landed on by the spacecraft Philae could well be home to an abundance of alien microbial life, according to leading astronomers.
Features of the comet, named 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, such as its organic-rich black crust, are most likely explained by the presence of living organisms beneath an icy surface, the scientists have said.
Rosetta, the European spacecraft orbiting the comet, is also said to have picked up strange clusters of organic material that resemble viral particles.
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Jul 06, 2015, 07:19 PM
Philae comet could be home to alien life, say scientists | Science | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/jul/06/philae-comet-could-be-home-to-alien-life-say-top-scientists)


The comet landed on by the spacecraft Philae could well be home to an abundance of alien microbial life, according to leading astronomers.
Features of the comet, named 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, such as its organic-rich black crust, are most likely explained by the presence of living organisms beneath an icy surface, the scientists have said.
Rosetta, the European spacecraft orbiting the comet, is also said to have picked up strange clusters of organic material that resemble viral particles.
Oh baby!
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Jul 06, 2015, 07:22 PM
No life

No alien life on Philae comet | Science | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/science/across-the-universe/2015/jul/06/no-alien-life-on-philae-comet?CMP=twt_science-gdnscience)
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Xevross on Jul 06, 2015, 07:26 PM
No life

No alien life on Philae comet | Science | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/science/across-the-universe/2015/jul/06/no-alien-life-on-philae-comet?CMP=twt_science-gdnscience)
That was shot down quickly  :(
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: DD_Bwest on Jul 06, 2015, 07:55 PM
No life

No alien life on Philae comet | Science | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/science/across-the-universe/2015/jul/06/no-alien-life-on-philae-comet?CMP=twt_science-gdnscience)
awe boooo lol  
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Aura7541 on Jul 06, 2015, 08:30 PM
Any idea when Europa (one of Jupiter's moons) will be paid a visit? The surface is all ice, but because the core generates heat from the rotation around Jupiter, there may be an underground ocean.
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Jul 06, 2015, 08:30 PM
Any idea when Europa (one of Jupiter's moons) will be paid a visit? The surface is all ice, but because the core generates heat from the rotation around Jupiter, there may be an underground ocean.
I think Europa is the next big mission. Around 2020?
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Cute Pikachu on Jul 06, 2015, 11:10 PM
This is more hype then the last guardian Ff7R and S3!!!
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Aura7541 on Jul 07, 2015, 12:55 AM
This is more hype then the last guardian Ff7R and S3!!!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/510984202343297024/5zFWeSu7.png)
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Feb 04, 2016, 01:59 AM
Mysterious Martian "Cauliflower" May Be the Latest Hint of Alien Life | Science | Smithsonian (http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/mysterious-martian-cauliflower-may-be-latest-hint-alien-life-180957981/?no-ist)

More evidence for past life on Mars.
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Apr 30, 2016, 07:25 PM
Time for a ~1 year in update.


Mars is looking good. More and more we find evidence that benefits the existence of life living in the distant past. I definitely think there's some good discoveries we can find there soon. One problem though is the Mars InSight lander was delayed by two years. It'll now arrive on Mars in 2019 which cuts my prediction close if it's the one to find life.

However while InSight slipped, other projects are pushing forward. ExoMars was successfully launched on March 14 with the primary goal of searching for Exobiology on Mars. When it arrives in October, we could get some good data about life on the planet.

Out of left field SpaceX announced it could start sending rockets to Mars in 2018. The Curiosity rover and probe are currently the heaviest payloads ever sent to Mars at 3,893 kg. Meanwhile SpaceX's Falcon Heavy will be capable of sending up to 13,600 kg to the red planet. NASA is working with SpaceX on this and has plans to potentially even bring back Martian soil samples.


Sadly the rest of the solar system isn't looking as good. Congress cut budgets for the Europa mission so it's slipping into the late 2020s. Might still be an awesome mission, but way too late for my prediction.


Overall I still feel somewhat confident with my OP. The SpaceX sample return missions will be crucial to us directly observing alien cells by 2025.
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Cute Pikachu on Apr 30, 2016, 08:34 PM
I want to see krypto
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Aug 01, 2019, 11:55 PM
The first half of my prediction is not looking good!  :P
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Dr. Pezus on Aug 02, 2019, 12:17 PM
The first half of my prediction is not looking good!  :P
Indeed. And wow, time flies!
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Sep 14, 2020, 05:31 PM
Hints of life on Venus | The Royal Astronomical Society (https://ras.ac.uk/news-and-press/news/hints-life-venus)


I might be right!
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Xevross on Sep 14, 2020, 06:25 PM
Oh wow I remember this happening, time really does fly huh?
Title: Re: Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years
Post by: Legend on Sep 14, 2020, 09:48 PM
Oh wow I remember this happening, time really does fly huh?
Indeed. It makes me want to do more things for my future self. Maybe I should plant another tree.