Movie Thread

[the-pi-guy]

Figures that Endgame would be especially front loaded.  

Based off the 10 day chart, it looks like we can expect 513m to be somewhere between 60% and 70% of the total.  (And wow, Avatar is quite in a league of its own. )
60% would put Endgame at 855m domestic.
70% would put Endgame at 732m.

Second place seems like a safe bet.  

Oops, looks like Endgame made the 513 at 8 days.  I am not sure how I messed up like that.

60% would put it at $1.033 billion.  
70% would put it at $885 million.

Wow, that's a lot better than I thought.  It's just a little under Avengers, and IW.  So it's almost certain to come closer to the $885 million.

So yeah as Xev said.  2nd place is basically guaranteed.  1st place, possible but not really.  


Endgame had a couple of rough week days, but it's second weekend is pretty close to TFA's second weekend.  TFA got a bit of a Christmas boost.  

TFA was a beast during the week, either way.  

[Xevross]

Oh yes this is everything I wanted. And following up on Endgame really nicely, gonna be the first $1b+ Spidey film for sure.

[Legend]

$147.3 million actuals for Endgame. Slightly higher than predictions but still just shy of TFA.

It will be really interesting to see if it manages to beat TFA domestically once everything has settled.

[Xevross]

$147.3 million actuals for Endgame. Slightly higher than predictions but still just shy of TFA.

It will be really interesting to see if it manages to beat TFA domestically once everything has settled.

I'll spoil it for ya: it won't

Well, I give it a 5-10% chance, if it matches IW legs from here it gets to $898mm, $38m short, and I don't think its matching IW legs.

[Legend]

I'll spoil it for ya: it won't

Well, I give it a 5-10% chance, if it matches IW legs from here it gets to $898mm, $38m short, and I don't think its matching IW legs.

How are you calculating those legs? I see $930.7 million if it has the exact same drops from here on out.

I agree though that it'll probably drop faster.

[Xevross]

How are you calculating those legs? I see $930.7 million if it has the exact same drops from here on out.

I agree though that it'll probably drop faster.

Using relative sunday grosses not total, as Endgame legs are constantly slipping compared to IW so it makes more sense.

[Xevross]

Monday looking $10.7m apparently, would be about a 76% drop, 1% better than IW. So, good.

[the-pi-guy]

It looks like it should stay ahead of TFA for a couple more days at least.  
The weekend bump for Endgame will be interesting.  Wonder how long it'll stay ahead of TFA.  I'm guessing it'll get passed this weekend, or early next week at the absolute latest.

But that guess is without really looking at any trends...

[Xevross]

It looks like it should stay ahead of TFA for a couple more days at least.  
The weekend bump for Endgame will be interesting.  Wonder how long it'll stay ahead of TFA.  I'm guessing it'll get passed this weekend, or early next week at the absolute latest.

But that guess is without really looking at any trends...

Yeah seems like you're right, TFA falls to normal levels after this coming weekend though so Endgame should be able to stay somewhat in touch with it

[the-pi-guy]

Yeah seems like you're right, TFA falls to normal levels after this coming weekend though so Endgame should be able to stay somewhat in touch with it

How's Tuesday doing?

[Xevross]

How's Tuesday doing?

None of the insiders on BOT have shared info so we don't know yet. Their overseas tuesday estimate is $23M though, compared to $34M for monday, which is pretty good as a lot of the world had a holiday monday and China is still declining quickly as expected.

[Xevross]

12.5M dom tuesday (+17%) and 21.7M overseas.... meh. Wednesday better be a good hold.

[the-pi-guy]

So I just found out that Disney now has the Avatar films, because of Fox.  

It's legitimately horrific how big Disney is getting.

[Xevross]

So I just found out that Disney now has the Avatar films, because of Fox. 

It's legitimately horrific how big Disney is getting.

I wouldn't say horrific, the box office is one of the more okay things to be under a monopoly, from the consumer's perspective. Anyway, there's no reason the other big 6 could get this big, its just Disney has so many movies that people love.

Endgame news, wednesday heading for $8.4M or about -33%. Off the back of only a 17% bump on Tuesday that's actually really bad. Endgame legs starting to look rather weak, IW wed was 85% of Monday, $8.4M wed for Endgame would only be 78% of Monday. If this trend continues and is mirrored across the world... well Avatar isn't a sure thing yet.

[Legend]

I wouldn't say horrific, the box office is one of the more okay things to be under a monopoly, from the consumer's perspective. Anyway, there's no reason the other big 6 could get this big, its just Disney has so many movies that people love.

Endgame news, wednesday heading for $8.4M or about -33%. Off the back of only a 17% bump on Tuesday that's actually really bad. Endgame legs starting to look rather weak, IW wed was 85% of Monday, $8.4M wed for Endgame would only be 78% of Monday. If this trend continues and is mirrored across the world... well Avatar isn't a sure thing yet.

I might feel different if it wasn't Disney at the top, but for the time being I agree that it is mostly fine.

Speaking of the fox buyout, has anything changed from that transition yet? Is Disney going to use Fox as a brand?