Personally I think:I think $399 digital PS5 is enough to do that.
60% chance of $399/$499
30% chance of $399/$449
10% chance of $449/$499
Yeah the second option they'll lose more money, but I think they'll want to take that risk to grow the market as quick as they can. PS4, they played things pretty safe. They've got a steady subscription base, and they know consoles are sticking around.
I'm interested to see how hard they go in 2021. Presuming PS5 keeps selling, perhaps they could go as high as 30M shipped by the end of the year? PS4 was 19.9M and I think its realistic they go +10M on that. PS4 was about +10M on PS3 end of first full year.
We know they want to produce 10M by end of 2020, which will translate to over 10M shipped by end of March, probably more like 12M+ which would be up 5M on PS4. Another 5M in the next 9 months would seem easy after that. They can produce 1.7M a month given what we know and that will ramp up, so 30M is definitely possible.