It just makes so much logical sense, the more I think about it from different angles and look at things in the past the more it makes so much sense.Personally I think:
$399/$449 would be too crazy. They'd be taking a bigger loss than PS4 on both SKUs and the difference isn't big enough to encourage people to digital. $100 difference makes the most sense. If I was to put chances on each:
$399/$499 50%
$449/$499 29%
$399/$449 15%
Disk higher than $499 5%
Digital lower than $399 1%
Obviously there can also be some in between too but you get the gist.
60% chance of $399/$499
30% chance of $399/$449
10% chance of $449/$499
Yeah the second option they'll lose more money, but I think they'll want to take that risk to grow the market as quick as they can. PS4, they played things pretty safe. They've got a steady subscription base, and they know consoles are sticking around.