If Xbox game studios pump out more hits, online is free, and gamepass is seen as a cheap way to jump in, I think that could change.Yeah its a real wildcard, the whole thing. If MS studios does get to a point of putting out lots of big games then Lockheart + gamepass could be absolutely massive. Alternatively people could just not really care and see it as the usual few xbox games they're missing out on.
Say Avowed, Fable, and the game from the initiative end up being great and hard to miss. $250 for lockhart in 2024 would be almost as cheap as just buying the games full price.
XB1 S has been dirt cheap for a while, gamepass has been a great deal for a while, yet XB1 is still almost dead at this point and has had a really bad last few years. The people that might want to jump on Lockheart in the future for these reasons really should have got an XB1S already, but they haven't.
This is what leads me to think Pez is right, xbox will attract a few more but that's it. They certainly aren't going to convince anyone to jump from PS5, just add a second console at best, and most people don't do second consoles.