COVID-19

[the-pi-guy]

So far I had been posting this into the thread about PAX, since it was relevant. 
As of March 9, 2020, there have been over 114,000 cases confirmed and over 4,000 deaths. 

Stolen from Wikipedia:




Interesting and relevant:

In a study by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China, men had a death rate of 2.8% while women had a death rate of 1.7%. In those under the age of 50 the risk of death is less than 0.5% while in those over the age of 70 it is more than 8%.[94] No deaths had occurred under the age of 10 as of 26 February 2020

[Dr. Pezus]

Iceland has the 3rd highest infections per capita in the world I think. Most had been skiing in the Alps.

Says a lot about the economy here in Iceland imo. Many aren't doing bad at all.

Most of the infected here are healthy, young or middle aged. None has needed ICU and I think 2 or 3 had to be hospitalized.

What I fear is that those already infected might get worse, as has happened elsewhere. Apparently about %12 of those infected in Northern Italy needed ICU iirc, which is crazy.

Our ICU in Iceland has capacity for maybe 15-20 patients (in total, including patients with other problems and postop)

[the-pi-guy]

It feels strange.  A lot of the strange feeling probably comes from the difficulty to see what things will look like in 2 or 3 months.  Like how many people will be infected, and how many people will die from this pandemic.  

It just feels like this far away problem, and yet it somehow is causing a lot of fear everywhere.  
Like it's weird to see events cancelled when there's no current problem in those areas.  

It's also weird because I don't remember anything like this happening before.  

I also feel like I have some cognitive dissonance, because I don't think things are really bad so we shouldn't worry, but also things could get way worse than we think if we aren't being overly cautious.  


From what I understand, the expected incubation time is in two weeks.  Most show symptoms around 5 days, but people could be contagious two weeks before showing symptoms.  

So it'd be pretty easy for someone to go to E3, not knowing they were sick, and end up infecting a few dozen people, and each of those could end up infecting a few dozen more.  

[Xevross]

Yikes this feels really real now. Stock markets are crashing, most sporting events are being cancelled, travel being restricted, schools across the world are closing, some countries going into lockdown.

Our government (UK) is having an emergency COBRA meeting now as they move to phase 2 of the plan to deal with the virus, we're all waiting to see what its going to mean.

[kitler53]

Yikes this feels really real now. Stock markets are crashing, most sporting events are being cancelled, travel being restricted, schools across the world are closing, some countries going into lockdown.

Our government (UK) is having an emergency COBRA meeting now as they move to phase 2 of the plan to deal with the virus, we're all waiting to see what its going to mean.

yeah, my area still hasn't been affected but there is a lot of talk of closing the schools possibly for the rest of the school year.  it appears quite likely i will be required to stay home for months to take care of my kid.   wow.

[the-pi-guy]

Something I was looking at:
The first part of the outbreak, COVID 19 has a higher expansion rate and a vastly higher death rate (like on the scale of 100 times higher) than H1N1/09. 

H1N1/09 is estimated to have killed 100k-500k people. 
If COVID 19 were to follow H1N1, we would be looking at something on the scale of 10 million deaths.

------------------------------------------
Now that 10 million number is certainly alarmist, but it's the reason why we have to be what feels overly cautious.  These kinds of viruses can explode and be horrific, or sometimes they die down earlier than expected. 

Finally, the good news:



It seems like China at the very least is slowly recovering. 

With how serious, it's being taken everywhere else, I think we can expect things to be not bad at all.

[Dr. Pezus]

Something I was looking at:
The first part of the outbreak, COVID 19 has a higher expansion rate and a vastly higher death rate (like on the scale of 100 times higher) than H1N1/09.  

H1N1/09 is estimated to have killed 100k-500k people.  
If COVID 19 were to follow H1N1, we would be looking at something on the scale of 10 million deaths.

------------------------------------------
Now that 10 million number is certainly alarmist, but it's the reason why we have to be what feels overly cautious.  These kinds of viruses can explode and be horrific, or sometimes they die down earlier than expected.  

Finally, the good news:



It seems like China at the very least is slowly recovering.  

With how serious, it's being taken everywhere else, I think we can expect things to be not bad at all.

Well some countries were a bit late, like Norway, Sweden and USA (cases in the US are most likely vastly underestimated relative to western Europe)

That will make it difficult.

I almost worry more about what happens after this, with the ecenomy likely crashing. Hopefully it can be saved, but that is less likely if the pandemic continues for many months

[Xevross]

Something I was looking at:
The first part of the outbreak, COVID 19 has a higher expansion rate and a vastly higher death rate (like on the scale of 100 times higher) than H1N1/09.  

H1N1/09 is estimated to have killed 100k-500k people.  
If COVID 19 were to follow H1N1, we would be looking at something on the scale of 10 million deaths.

------------------------------------------
Now that 10 million number is certainly alarmist, but it's the reason why we have to be what feels overly cautious.  These kinds of viruses can explode and be horrific, or sometimes they die down earlier than expected.  

Finally, the good news:



It seems like China at the very least is slowly recovering.  

With how serious, it's being taken everywhere else, I think we can expect things to be not bad at all.

No country, not even Italy, has reached China's level of response. China will probably be the country that fared best out of them all in the end. I fully expect the US to be the cause of this getting out of hand, it'll infect a large proportion of the population and then re-spread to the rest of the world.

[the-pi-guy]

No country, not even Italy, has reached China's level of response. China will probably be the country that fared best out of them all in the end. I fully expect the US to be the cause of this getting out of hand, it'll infect a large proportion of the population and then re-spread to the rest of the world.

Even still theres more good news.  


                South Korea reports more recoveries than coronavirus cases for the first time - Reuters

[Xevross]

Yep, hitting home now.

My Uni has closed, all teaching is remote and assessments are completely up in the air. Our viva presentations for our master's projects, supposed to be next week, have now been cancelled. We've been told our summer term exams are either going to be done remotely or delayed, most likely delayed I imagine. So now my summer plans are probably iced up.

[Legend]

Kids here in my area are getting a 3 week extended spring break.

It feels like a micro ww2 with everything being changed to support the cause. If the olympics don't happen it'll be the first time since 1944.

[the-pi-guy]

Yep, hitting home now.

My Uni has closed, all teaching is remote and assessments are completely up in the air. Our viva presentations for our master's projects, supposed to be next week, have now been cancelled. We've been told our summer term exams are either going to be done remotely or delayed, most likely delayed I imagine. So now my summer plans are probably iced up.

Yep.  
My brother's school is cancelled for the next month.  
My school went all online and doubled spring vacation.
PS5 meeting was delayed by 2 months.  

But I still have to go to work, with all the sick people.  

[the-pi-guy]

Man people are pretty obsessed with this thing.  

Feels like we reached mass panic like yesterday here.  

We are running out of a lot of stuff.  Toilet paper, paper towel, bread, canned goods, cleaning supplies, wipes.  

I've never seen the shelves so empty.  

[nnodley]

yup id say the panic is a little out of hand, but it is ok to be cautious with this virus.  

All schools near me and Indianapolis are doing all online classes.  Tons of companies have already declared that people work from home.

But...not where I work.  Haven't even heard any talk of doing remote work.  They are going super crazy with us all wiping down our desks like 4 times a day.  

Anyone who can do all their work remotely should be doing all their work remotely, no questions.  

This thing could explode if we aren't as cautious as we could be.

[kitler53]

my kids schools are closed until "at least march 30th".  my wife has a mandatory work from home policy.  my work officially doesn't have a policy (corporate is just so fudgy unorganized) but our office manager told everyone to stay at home for at least 2 weeks.   

there is a major run at the grocery store.   i will admit i fell into some panic buying myself.  ..but seeing the store at least a third empty and reading about how the distribution channels are disrupted,.. well i grabbed a lot.   the good news for me is my family cooks a lot so i was buying a lot of things that other people were not.  the only thing i got screwed on was flour.  couldn't buy any.