Introduction
The last time Microsoft ever disclosed the Xbox One's sold-through figures was January 2014 where it sold 3 million units by the end of 2013. Ever since, the company only reported shipment numbers, but they were obscured with Microsoft's combination of the 360 and One's shipments. Eventually, they stopped reporting Xbox shipments altogether, opting to report Monthly Active Users (MAU) as their preferred metric of performance.
In spite of the lack of sold-through or shipment numbers, there is a way to pinpoint how much it sold to consumers. During EA's earnings briefing, CFO Blake Jorgenson revealed that combined consoles sales reached 55 million units by the end of 2015. Sony revealed that the PS4 sold-through 35.9 million units as of January 3, 2016. With simple arithmetic, the XBO's sold-through figure should be 19.1 million.
Sales Estimation
We can estimate the XBO's current worldwide sales by calculating the percentage of WW sales that come from the US. According to the NPD Group, the console sold about 11.12 million units by the end of 2015. That brings the US percentage to approximately 58.2%. As of the end of November, the XBO sold around 14.34 million units in the US. Divide that figure by 0.582 and the estimated WW sales should equal to 24.62 million.
The caveat with this estimation is that it hinges on the assumption that the US percentage stayed around 58.2% from the beginning of this year to the end of November. It is very possible that the percentage of XBO's sales coming from the US increased over time. According to Marketwatch, FY17 Q1 (July through September) hardware revenue decreased by 26% in comparison to FY16 Q1 due to lower prices and lower volumes of consoles sold. However, during that same time quarter, the XBO was up YOY by about 99.7K units on NPD.
Based on the available data, it is not out of the question to infer that the US currently constitutes a larger percent share of the XBO's sales compared to the beginning of this year. As a result, the XBO may have sold less than 24.62 million units. To what degree, exactly? That is impossible to determine until EA (or another major 3rd party publisher) decides to disclose combined console sales again.
What's the significance?
At the beginning of December, Sony revealed that the PS4 exceeded 50 million sales as of December 6. Compared to the estimated 24.62 million sales from the XBO, the PS4 has sold over twice as much as its competitor.
How does the XBO shape up against its predecessor, the 360? Through its first 13 quarters in the market, the 360 shipped about 28.5 million units. The XBO has not finished its 13th quarter yet, but assuming it exhibits a similar % YOY decrease from November NPD, US sales should top out at 15.4 million by the end of this year. Using the 58.2% US percentage, WW sales will be 26.45 million by the end of 2016.
The XBO's estimated sold-through number is about 2 million lower than the 360's shipment figure. It is extremely unlikely that Microsoft will stuff the channels with that many units. In fact, the company has been more intelligent and cautious with the amount of stock according to Abdiel. Putting all the pieces together, the XBO has fallen behind the 360.
So what are your thoughts?
The last time Microsoft ever disclosed the Xbox One's sold-through figures was January 2014 where it sold 3 million units by the end of 2013. Ever since, the company only reported shipment numbers, but they were obscured with Microsoft's combination of the 360 and One's shipments. Eventually, they stopped reporting Xbox shipments altogether, opting to report Monthly Active Users (MAU) as their preferred metric of performance.
In spite of the lack of sold-through or shipment numbers, there is a way to pinpoint how much it sold to consumers. During EA's earnings briefing, CFO Blake Jorgenson revealed that combined consoles sales reached 55 million units by the end of 2015. Sony revealed that the PS4 sold-through 35.9 million units as of January 3, 2016. With simple arithmetic, the XBO's sold-through figure should be 19.1 million.
Sales Estimation
We can estimate the XBO's current worldwide sales by calculating the percentage of WW sales that come from the US. According to the NPD Group, the console sold about 11.12 million units by the end of 2015. That brings the US percentage to approximately 58.2%. As of the end of November, the XBO sold around 14.34 million units in the US. Divide that figure by 0.582 and the estimated WW sales should equal to 24.62 million.
The caveat with this estimation is that it hinges on the assumption that the US percentage stayed around 58.2% from the beginning of this year to the end of November. It is very possible that the percentage of XBO's sales coming from the US increased over time. According to Marketwatch, FY17 Q1 (July through September) hardware revenue decreased by 26% in comparison to FY16 Q1 due to lower prices and lower volumes of consoles sold. However, during that same time quarter, the XBO was up YOY by about 99.7K units on NPD.
Based on the available data, it is not out of the question to infer that the US currently constitutes a larger percent share of the XBO's sales compared to the beginning of this year. As a result, the XBO may have sold less than 24.62 million units. To what degree, exactly? That is impossible to determine until EA (or another major 3rd party publisher) decides to disclose combined console sales again.
What's the significance?
At the beginning of December, Sony revealed that the PS4 exceeded 50 million sales as of December 6. Compared to the estimated 24.62 million sales from the XBO, the PS4 has sold over twice as much as its competitor.
How does the XBO shape up against its predecessor, the 360? Through its first 13 quarters in the market, the 360 shipped about 28.5 million units. The XBO has not finished its 13th quarter yet, but assuming it exhibits a similar % YOY decrease from November NPD, US sales should top out at 15.4 million by the end of this year. Using the 58.2% US percentage, WW sales will be 26.45 million by the end of 2016.
The XBO's estimated sold-through number is about 2 million lower than the 360's shipment figure. It is extremely unlikely that Microsoft will stuff the channels with that many units. In fact, the company has been more intelligent and cautious with the amount of stock according to Abdiel. Putting all the pieces together, the XBO has fallen behind the 360.
So what are your thoughts?
