Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years

Started by Legend, Mar 15, 2015, 08:50 PM

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Legend

Bold prediction I know. Here are the details.

Before 2020 ends we will find signs of alien life within our solar system. We don't have to actually see the life, just have very strong evidence saying it's there or was there. Doesn't have to still be alive.

Then before 2025 ends we will actually collect and/or dirrectly observe alien life bodies/cells. Again they can be long dead, but still 100% proof of life beyond Earth.


The major issue with this prediction is that space travel takes a long time. The probes that find signs of life will have needed to already be launched. What do you think?

Max King of the Wild

Nope. Not in our life time

Legend


Nope. Not in our life time


Do you think there isn't life out there, or do you just think we won't find it soon?

Max King of the Wild


Do you think there isn't life out there, or do you just think we won't find it soon?
We can all agree the chances of life sustainable world is ridiculously minute. The chances of evolution occurring for intelligent life also ridiculously minute. The chances of those two occuring at two distinct point of space and eventually running into each other?

the-pi-guy


We can all agree the chances of life sustainable world is ridiculously minute. The chances of evolution occurring for intelligent life also ridiculously minute. The chances of those two occuring at two distinct point of space and eventually running into each other?

Different types of life. 
OP is about life of any form, not necessarily intelligent. 

Legend


We can all agree the chances of life sustainable world is ridiculously minute. The chances of evolution occurring for intelligent life also ridiculously minute. The chances of those two occuring at two distinct point of space and eventually running into each other?


With very conservative estimates, there are 100 Earth like planets (same sun, same distance from the sun, warm but not too warm liquid water, etc.) for every single grain of sand on our planet. That's over 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 in the universe. Even with the odds of creation at 0.0000001%, that'd be 100 billion planets with life.


However, that's for the whole universe. My prediction is that we'll find life right here in our very solar system. There's a good chance Mars has it or had it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars#Possible_biosignatures

Here's some very recent info about it too: http://www.astrobio.net/news-exclusive/potential-signs-ancient-life-mars-rover-photos/, https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/life-mars-%E2%80%93-evidence-mounts

Europa, Io, and Titan are also pretty good bets. However just a few days ago, it was discovered that Saturn's moon Enceladus probably has the best environment for the creation and evolution of life: http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/deep-space/a14507/enceladus-saturn-moon-ocean/

The more and more we look, the more evidence we find of alien life in our own backyard. Plus Nasa has been given the greenlight to spend $1.3 billion on a mission to Europa with the main objective of finding life. If that works out on at least finding definitive signs of its existence, then my prediction is as good as gold.

the-pi-guy

The universe is stupidly* huge! 

*ridiculously gigantically massively............(hours later)........ massively

Max King of the Wild


With very conservative estimates, there are 100 Earth like planets (same sun, same distance from the sun, warm but not too warm liquid water, etc.) for every single grain of sand on our planet. That's over 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 in the universe. Even with the odds of creation at 0.0000001%, that'd be 100 billion planets with life.


However, that's for the whole universe. My prediction is that we'll find life right here in our very solar system. There's a good chance Mars has it or had it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars#Possible_biosignatures

Here's some very recent info about it too: http://www.astrobio.net/news-exclusive/potential-signs-ancient-life-mars-rover-photos/, https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/life-mars-%E2%80%93-evidence-mounts

Europa, Io, and Titan are also pretty good bets. However just a few days ago, it was discovered that Saturn's moon Enceladus probably has the best environment for the creation and evolution of life: http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/deep-space/a14507/enceladus-saturn-moon-ocean/

The more and more we look, the more evidence we find of alien life in our own backyard. Plus Nasa has been given the greenlight to spend $1.3 billion on a mission to Europa with the main objective of finding life. If that works out on at least finding definitive signs of its existence, then my prediction is as good as gold.
Oh, I then disagree. No life in our solar system found anytime soon or at all.

Legend

Aw I now understand what you were getting at. Let me continue.


We can all agree the chances of life sustainable world is ridiculously minute. The chances of evolution occurring for intelligent life also ridiculously minute. The chances of those two occuring at two distinct point of space and eventually running into each other?


With very conservative estimates, there are 100 Earth like planets (same sun, same distance from the sun, warm but not too warm liquid water, etc.) for every single grain of sand on our planet. That's over 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 in the universe. Even with the odds of creation at 0.0000001%, that'd be 100 billion planets with life.

Now let's say only 0.001% of those planets evolve advanced life. That's 1 million planets with life similar to ours. Once you get to advanced life, it stops being a game of percents and starts being a game of time. Humans first started being human about 50,000 years ago. Within that time period we've developed science and shot off to the stars. Imaging us 50,000 years in the future is just crazy!

The universe however is around 12 billion years old, with the Earth around 4 billion years old. If one of those million planets reached advanced life just a fraction sooner than us, they could be millions of years more advanced than us. They'd have vast empires covering their entire galaxies. We'd on Earth be able to easily see signs of their existence. This is all statistcs using numbers orders of magnetude lower than our lowest predictions.

Except we've yet to see any signs of these huge alien empires. This is called the fermi paradox. Either life on Earth is the only life, life on Earth is one of the most advanced lifes, something stops aliens from getting more advanced, or alien civilizations are too advanced for us to even notice they exist. The probibility of two life forms being close by each other doesn't matter.

the-pi-guy

We really don't know how rare life is. 
We have some idea of some factors that play a part in life, but even many of these ideas are subject to changes.  If we look at the Goldilocks zone, the planet being of the "right" temperature.  This is based off our preconceived notions of life and certain planetary conditions.  The conditions can vary wildly though.  I would even say each planet could have its own Goldilocks zone based on its disposition. I would wager than Venus and Mars would have different zones because of their atmosphere, plus there is the potential of other heat sources barring the sun, such as a planet. 
Then we consider that life could use something other than water and carbon as its building blocks, and certainly more examples I haven't thought of yet. 
Etc, etc.  There are lots of factors that we have an idea about and almost certainly factors that we don't even know about.  Life might be more common than we ever dreamed. 

Then we go to the fact that all life on Earth seems related, so based on that it might be incredibly rare, but even that I think might have other possible answers. 
Perhaps new life is *common* but dies out from competition very quickly or some other reason. 

Legend

http://news.yahoo.com/signs-alien-life-found-2025-nasas-chief-scientist-212655192.html

Oh wow haha. Nasa's chief scientist just agreed with my prediction!

I bet 1 billion credits I'll/we'll be right.

BasilZero

Alien chicks!?

Spoiler for Hidden:
(I think we'll find some sort of life form but I dont expect it to be intelligent)

Legend


Alien chicks!?

Spoiler for Hidden:
(I think we'll find some sort of life form but I dont expect it to be intelligent)



Yeah I wouldn't even expect it to have brains.

Also: Complex Organic Molecules Discovered in Infant Star System. Hints that the building blocks of the chemistry of life are universal

Just face it guys, I'm winning this prediction :)

BasilZero


Yeah I wouldn't even expect it to have brains.

Also: Complex Organic Molecules Discovered in Infant Star System. Hints that the building blocks of the chemistry of life are universal

Just face it guys, I'm winning this prediction :)


But I didnt deny existence of life....

DD_Bwest

Jul 06, 2015, 06:35 PM Last Edit: Jul 06, 2015, 11:26 PM by Legend
Edt: not true. See next post

Philae comet could be home to alien life, say scientists | Science | The Guardian


The comet landed on by the spacecraft Philae could well be home to an abundance of alien microbial life, according to leading astronomers.
Features of the comet, named 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, such as its organic-rich black crust, are most likely explained by the presence of living organisms beneath an icy surface, the scientists have said.
Rosetta, the European spacecraft orbiting the comet, is also said to have picked up strange clusters of organic material that resemble viral particles.