Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD

[ethomaz]

I will let you figure that one

1,101,038
6,179,578
8,387,491
6,308,783
4,593,958
5,550,000
4,979,152

Edit - Fixed because the copy/past messed everything losing data.

Edit 2 - I added one more year.

[Xevross]

Basically a normal console has a trend like this

1
2 (increase)
3 (increase)
4 (increase)
5  (increase)
4  (decrease)
3  (decrease)
2  (decrease)
1  (decrease)

All increase followed by all decrease.

The Xbox One is seeing something like this:
1
2
2
0.8
2

A massive increase after a bad year.

That increase is what the analysts are talking about when they are talking about the turn around.  They are explicitly talking about a increase following a decrease.  

Well that's slightly exaggerated, but yeah.

360 went roughly:

1
4
4.5
4.8
4.7
7
7.5
6.5
3.5
1.5

so it stagnated around its peak (like PS4 has been doing) then got a pretty big boost from Kinect. That kinect boost is bigger than the X boost though, that's for sure.

[ethomaz]

What Pi said, none of these show a big jump up after a big drop. The XB1 is the only console to have ever done this.

Nope.

See my previous post.

Unless you say near 2 million drop and near 1 million jump up is not BIG... that is in fact bigger than XB1 drop/jump.

Mat is using the mid-gen release as a condition to his claim... that obvious never happened before because well it is the first time it is happening lol

[Xevross]

Nope.

See my previous post.

Unless you say near 2 million drop and near 1 million jump up is not BIG... that is in fact bigger than XB1 drop/jump.

I see a 27% drop followed by a 20% bump to a total of 3 million less than peak, which is far less than what XB1 has achieved. And what's the point in posting random data without saying what it is?

[ethomaz]

I see a 27% drop followed by a 20% bump to a total of 3 million less than peak, which is far less than what XB1 has achieved. And what's the point in posted random data without saying what it is?

Random? It is pretty clear where the data come... which console sold that much in US for so many years?

Spoiler for Hidden:

PS2

I don't have monthly data so I can't compare directly to XB1 up to October but I'm pretty sure if I have Jan-Oct you will see a way bigger % than 27 and 20.

In any case you said it never happened but it indeed happened.

[Xevross]

Random? It is pretty clear where the data come... which console sold that much in US for so many years?

Spoiler for Hidden:

PS2

I don't have monthly data so I can't compare directly to XB1 up to October but I'm pretty sure if I have Jan-Oct you will see a way bigger % than 27 and 20.

In any case you said it never happened but it indeed happened.

Who said it never happened? I was just wondering why you posted numbers without saying what they are, and now I know they're PS2, which would have been helpful before... Edit: Oh I misunderstood what you meant there, well fine it happened with the PS2 and I was wrong about it never happening before, but the market is very different now and there were other circumstances at play there:

PS2 was weird, since it launched early and took a long time to get popular, and then when the slims released and it became super cheap it started to get bought by loads of people just as DVD players and stuff like that. Definitely a one off in the market.

Anyway, I just read the original statement again, and I agree that this, "year-over-year growth like this at this point in the cycle has never been seen before", is false. But this, "It's a mid-generation turnaround the market's never seen before", can certainly be said is true due to the X being a new concept.

Not even sure what we're arguing about here.

[the-pi-guy]

I will let you figure that one

1,101,038
6,179,578
8,387,491
6,308,783
4,593,958
5,550,000
4,979,152

Edit - Fixed because the copy/past messed everything losing data.

Edit 2 - I added one more year.

Do you have a source for these numbers?

[Xevross]

And of course, as this was Mat Piscatella talking it was about revenue, and PS2 will have been way down on revenue due to the slims being so much cheaper. The unit increase is impressive, but the revenue increase is insane. No other console will have come anywhere close to the revenue increase the XB1 is seeing this year

[DerNebel]

What Pi said, none of these show a big jump up after a big drop. The XB1 is the only console to have ever done this.

The XB1 is also the only console to ever have its manufacturer basically come out and say "in 1 1/2 years we'll release an XB1 that'll do all the things the current XB1 does just vastly better", essentially completely stopping the XB1 dead in its tracks.

2017 was such a trash year for the Xbox in large part because MS decided to pull the rug under their own feet early.

Also I'm not sure how much sense making these statements now really makes, Benjis insider info suggest that November sales for the Xbox might very well be down YoY and I currently don't see much reason to believe that the X1 will match last years December either, so what at the moment looks like a very significant growth of 30% YoY, may at the end of the year be a much less remarkable growth of maybe like 10% or so over a pretty terrible year.

And of course, as this was Mat Piscatella talking it was about revenue, and PS2 will have been way down on revenue due to the slims being so much cheaper. The unit increase is impressive, but the revenue increase is insane. No other console will have come anywhere close to the revenue increase the XB1 is seeing this year

Revenue is a pretty pointless metric, if you don't know the profit margins.

[Xevross]

The XB1 is also the only console to ever have its manufacturer basically come out and say "in 1 1/2 years we'll release an XB1 that'll do all the things the current XB1 does just vastly better", essentially completely stopping the XB1 dead in its tracks.

2017 was such a trash year for the Xbox in large part because MS decided to pull the rug under their own feet early.

Also I'm not sure how much sense making these statements now really makes, Benjis insider info suggest that November sales for the Xbox might very well be down YoY and I currently don't see much reason to believe that the X1 will match last years December either, so what at the moment looks like a very significant growth of 30% YoY, may at the end of the year be a much less remarkable growth of maybe like 10% or so over a pretty terrible year.

Revenue is a pretty pointless metric, if you don't know the profit margins.

Lol yes that is true.

XB1 is 100% going to be down YOY in November, since the X launched last November. I think the point is that we're comparing XB1 now to how it was doing pre-X launching. November and December both had the X last year, so its time of being boosted YOY thanks to the X will be over. And in fact, it will probably not be up YOY in many months ever again now.

Also you can argue that units is an even more pointless metric by that logic. Since we don't even know what those units sold for, never mind profit they made. At least revenue metrics can give a decent sense of profit.

My predictions for XB1 are 1.1M in Nov and 1.3M in Dec, which would make it at 4.5M for the year, or up 5% YOY overall. That would be okay, I feel. Certainly the 12 months of X launch Nov- October will be the most impressive months, and its going to start looking dim for Xbox until the new gen starts.

Same for PS4, it may be up in odd months for stuff like TLOU2 launch and for a new price cut but apart from that its down, down, down from here. Unless Sony do a permanent $249 in December/ Jan, then PS4 might stay up.

[Kerotan]

LOL yeah phenomenal sales. That must make the switch and ps4 sales out of this world. If you're going to compare to 2017 at least point out a huge reason the sales were dogshit is because MS were shouting from the rooftops and hyping the xbox X to the wazoo long before it was even revealed. There are nothing impressive about it's performance and I'd be shocked if the console wasn't doing better this year so far. Although it will be down over the holidays.

Funny how the same logic  doesn't get applied to ps4 in japan. There was a time it was selling half of what it averages now but nobody goes on about ps4 sales in japan as phenomenal. regardless of whether or not you agree with that t atill doesn't change the fact that xbox sales are very very average.

[ethomaz]

In terms of metric imo...

Profit > Units >> Revenue

Revenue is basically the most pointless metric without context (I mean without the help of others metrics)... Profit margin is the best because no matter if you are selling a lot or a few if you have profit you are good.

Units is better than revenue because it shows how much your userbase is growing and how much potential software and service sales you can have in that platform.

Revenue is really the weak spot... you can have huge revenue and failed miserably.

Do you have a source for these numbers?

Probably GAF.

There is a thread on GAF with NPD data since 1994.

[DerNebel]

Lol yes that is true.

XB1 is 100% going to be down YOY in November, since the X launched last November. I think the point is that we're comparing XB1 now to how it was doing pre-X launching. November and December both had the X last year, so its time of being boosted YOY thanks to the X will be over. And in fact, it will probably not be up YOY in many months ever again now.

Also you can argue that units is an even more pointless metric by that logic. Since we don't even know what those units sold for, never mind profit they made. At least revenue metrics can give a decent sense of profit.

My predictions for XB1 are 1.1M in Nov and 1.3M in Dec, which would make it at 4.5M for the year, or up 5% YOY overall. That would be okay, I feel. Certainly the 12 months of X launch Nov- October will be the most impressive months, and its going to start looking dim for Xbox until the new gen starts.

Same for PS4, it may be up in odd months for stuff like TLOU2 launch and for a new price cut but apart from that its down, down, down from here. Unless Sony do a permanent $249 in December/ Jan, then PS4 might stay up.

I don't think units are pointless. Things have probably shifted somewhat, but the bulk of the money that console manufacturers make on consoles comes from games and services being sold on their system, as such a unit sold is one person potentially buying games and services on that system.

A $500 console can earn the manufacturer the same amount of money as a $250 console can earn, hell we've seen a $600 console actually lose money per unit sold.

Both the XB1 and the PS4 will be noticably down next year, that's normal and MS and Sony fully expect as much.

[Xevross]

I don't think units are pointless. Things have probably shifted somewhat, but the bulk of the money that console manufacturers make on consoles comes from games and services being sold on their system, as such a unit sold is one person potentially buying games and services on that system.

A $500 console can earn the manufacturer the same amount of money as a $250 console can earn, hell we've seen a $600 console actually lose money per unit sold.

Both the XB1 and the PS4 will be noticably down next year, that's normal and MS and Sony fully expect as much.

I think units are now more useless than revenue when talking about PS4 and XB1, since revenue gives the whole picture of sales. With units, we have no idea how much the pro/ X is selling and we can't tell how much profit Sony is making from each of those sales. With revenue at least we have a bit of a better idea. I guess they're best used in conjunction with each other anyway, and units is always more interesting to see from an outsider's perspective.

Indeed. But we'll be seeing lots of fanboys coming out of the woodworks next year to lament performances.

[DerNebel]

I think units are now more useless than revenue when talking about PS4 and XB1, since revenue gives the whole picture of sales. With units, we have no idea how much the pro/ X is selling and we can't tell how much profit Sony is making from each of those sales. With revenue at least we have a bit of a better idea. I guess they're best used in conjunction with each other anyway, and units is always more interesting to see from an outsider's perspective.

Indeed. But we'll be seeing lots of fanboys coming out of the woodworks next year to lament performances.

Huh? No. Wat?

The only relevance the sales split between base and premium console has is that a permium console is more likely to be bought as a mid gen upgrade as opposed to someone buying his/her first gen 8 console a.k.a is it bringing a new person into the ecosystem vs is it someone who already is part of the ecosystem.

It's not the hardware sales itself, that's supposed to bring in the money and even if it was, the only information that revenue tells us, is that the actual money a company made is less than the revenue that they made, it might actually even be negative.

Where revenue would make sense is with game sales, especially if the game's been out for a while and went through a lot of price cuts already, cause there we have general ideas of the profit margins. At least this goes for non service games without microtransactions, the rules for those would be different again.