so is this enough to make 20M realistic?It's still technically possible. We need to know ROTW. Next Tuesday will tell us. Over 10 million it's possible. Under and it's not happening
Started by Xevross, Jan 22, 2019, 09:06 AM
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so is this enough to make 20M realistic?It's still technically possible. We need to know ROTW. Next Tuesday will tell us. Over 10 million it's possible. Under and it's not happening
Was just thinking how this was supposed to be an everybody wins kind of month, but all 3 ended up being disappointing in some way. Guess November really was a one-off.meh, nintendo has never been known for "long tails" on there systems. even their most popular systems started YoY declines far earlier than sony/ms systems. ..they just had higher peaks. switch is wrapping up it's 2nd year now. year 3 will be mostly flat and decline in year 4 if it follows the typical nintendo sales curve. even though the early sales curve is keeping up with ps4 i don't expect it to say on par in the later years.
Switch needs to sell 1.9M over the next 4 months to stay ahead of PS5 launch aligned, which obviously isn't happening. I wonder if Switch will ever manage to be ahead of PS4 after April's numbers. It might be able to do it next April, since 2016 was a bit of a dip for PS4.
It's still technically possible. We need to know ROTW. Next Tuesday will tell us. Over 10 million it's possible. Under and it's not happeningwell n. america is nintendo's best market. if it can't hit 2M in america i don't know how RotW contributes 8 million. ...or am i mis-reading that sentence?
well n. america is nintendo's best market. if it can't hit 2M in america i don't know how RotW contributes 8 million. ...or am i mis-reading that sentence?You need to account Japan too and others months of quarter.
so is this enough to make 20M realistic?Well it gives us an indication of how much Nintendo might have to stuff the channels to reach 20M (spoilers: its a lot).
meh, nintendo has never been known for "long tails" on there systems. even their most popular systems started YoY declines far earlier than sony/ms systems. ..they just had higher peaks. switch is wrapping up it's 2nd year now. year 3 will be mostly flat and decline in year 4 if it follows the typical nintendo sales curve. even though the early sales curve is keeping up with ps4 i don't expect it to say on par in the later years.Yeah exactly, but if it manages to be flat over the next year then it will get ahead of PS4 launch aligned after April for a while. Since legs will be poorer though, I don't think it'll last until the following April as PS4 had a nice uptick that year.
well n. america is nintendo's best market. if it can't hit 2M in america i don't know how RotW contributes 8 million. ...or am i mis-reading that sentence?
For real though. With digital it's 4 million+ which is absolutely absurd.Why wouldn't Nintendo be?
Mat is asking for csheep's email. NPD/Nintendo isn't happy that number is out there
Retail leak from csheep on Era:That table is really interesting if you look at the number of days/weeks.
Smash Ultimate - 3,592,000
COD Black Ops 4 - 1,647,000
RDR2 - 1,435,000
New all time exclusive launch record for Smash, beating Halo 3 by almost 300k. Awesome performance, that's likely 4M+ with digital.
1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Unit Sales
1/ Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 3.6 millions, December 2018 (30 days / 5 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo 3 : 3.3 millions, September 2007 (12 days / 2 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo Reach : 3.3 millions, September 2010 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
4/ Halo 2 : 3.27 millions, November 2004 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
5/ Halo 4 : 3.2 millions, November 2012 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
6/ Pokemon Sun+Moon : ~3.2 millions (estimate), November 2016 (9 days / 2 weeks tracking)
7/ Super Smash Bros Brawl : 2.7 millions, March 2008 (27 days / 4 weeks tracking)
8/ Spiderman : 2.6+ millions*, September 2018 (23 days / 4 weeks tracking)
9/ Pokemon Black & White : 2.5 millions, March 2008
10/ GTA San Andreas : 2.06 millions, October 2004
That table is really interesting if you look at the number of days/weeks.Yes although the days don't matter so much. Halo 3 only sold 400k the next month, for example. If it had 30 days of tracking like Smash it would probably still be 2nd, and Smash would win easily with digital.
Pokémon Sun+Moon and Halo 3 are really close to each other... to be fair I'm more impressed with Halo 3 because Pokémon is inflated by the double dips.
Top 20 For December 2018 and the 2018 Year pic.twitter.com/JNPRrl3u1j
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 22, 2019
Hello consumers of digital entertainment.Wow. It's you. dang. Long time dude
Switch is doing really good! All around everyone did well.
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