The gaming industry is dead. MS to buy Activision for 70 billion

Started by BananaKing, Jan 18, 2022, 01:41 PM

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BananaKing

Apr 28, 2022, 11:23 PM Last Edit: Apr 28, 2022, 11:24 PM by BananaKing
I am thinking about throwing in a few grand  

Why does wall street believe the deal will fail?

the-pi-guy

I am thinking about throwing in a few grand  

Why does wall street believe the deal will fail?
They think the US government might not allow the deal.  At the very least there is enough uncertainty that it won't go through.

Senators are urging the FTC to consider against it. There are some consolidation concerns, there are worker rights concerns being cited (that MS acquiring Activision will make it harder to unionize for example, which is what is currently happening.).

I've seen several people cite that there is about a 60% chance the deal goes through.

BananaKing

They think the US government might not allow the deal.  At the very least there is enough uncertainty that it won't go through.

Senators are urging the FTC to consider against it. There are some consolidation concerns, there are worker rights concerns being cited (that MS acquiring Activision will make it harder to unionize for example, which is what is currently happening.).

I've seen several people cite that there is about a 60% chance the deal goes through.

Good news for the industry if it doesn't go through.

Guess I'll have to study this a bit more.

kitler53

Good news for the industry if it doesn't go through.

Guess I'll have to study this a bit more.
it's not that we believe it will fail but that it could fail due to government opposition.  pair that with ATVI's terrible last quarter and overall slump in the market ATVI will drop by (imo) 30-50% if the deal is blocked.

it's a risk and the market is reflecting that.  

plus the deal isn't supposed to close until Q4 which is a long time to wait.  opportunity cost comes in to play too.
          

Legend

Good news for the industry if it doesn't go through.

Guess I'll have to study this a bit more.
How much was the stock worth before the deal was announced? Even if it doesn't go through, it's not like you'd lose all your investment.

the-pi-guy

How much was the stock worth before the deal was announced? Even if it doesn't go through, it's not like you'd lose all your investment.
It was around ~$65/share.

BananaKing

How much was the stock worth before the deal was announced? Even if it doesn't go through, it's not like you'd lose all your investment.
I am worried about the ramifications of what doesn't happen if it doesn't go through. But of course Activision can still have a golden gen and stock might jump back up.

the-pi-guy


[Business Insider] Microsoft Still Hasn't Cleaned Up Its Toxic Culture Issues, Employees Worried About Activision Blizzard Acquisition

Quote from: Matt
I want to be super clear about this: Xbox has been widely regarded, basically since its creation, as the worst division inside MS for women.

That has not changed.

kitler53

[Business Insider] Microsoft Still Hasn't Cleaned Up Its Toxic Culture Issues, Employees Worried About Activision Blizzard Acquisition

i don't have any insider information on MS or xbox....

...but spencer comes off as such a "dudebro" to me.   if a report came out that he was raping his subordinates i wouldn't doubt it.  everything about him is swarmy and smarmy and disingenuous.  i'd highly doubt he's a proactive champion of an inclusive healthy culture in his division.  
          

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