How do you expect Sony vs MS to go this gen?

Started by the-pi-guy, Jan 05, 2021, 03:03 PM

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the-pi-guy

Inspired by this article.

It would be hard to argue that Sony isn't in the best position they've probably ever been.  SIE studios has a level of quality and sales numbers to match that would be unthinkable just 8 years ago.

MS isn't quite there yet, but they've been pushing extensively on value. Gamepass is being pushed as a potential Netflix for games.  MS just bought one of the largest publishers on the market.  It would be hard to argue that MS isn't in the best position they've ever been.  This isn't the MS of the Xbox One/Xbox years.

In the short term it's pretty clear that Sony has the advantage. But long term it seems like MS has a lot of potential.

the-pi-guy

I still have to wonder how MS will handle BGS.  It is easy to argue you don't spend roughly $8 billion to make games on the opposite platform.  

But MS has shown this past gen, they aren't afraid to lose exclusives. They've released games on Switch and PS4, when they've felt it made sense.  

I think it'd be easy for them to argue for:
- full exclusivity
- full exclusivity unless game pass is more available
- majority exclusivity (big games like TES VI still coming to PS5)
- delayed exclusivity (big games like TES VI coming to PS5 a year later)

All of these are to some extent consistent with how MS has operated this gen.  

I'm expecting full exclusivity. But on some level it feels like MS wants to be seen as the good guys who are willing to bend to get players on their side. So I wouldn't be surprised to see at the very least TES VI coming to other platforms.

kitler53

i think gamepass hype is massively overblown...

FACT: most people buy less than 10 games per platform (switch, ps4, xbox one).   That comes out to like 1 or 2 games per year.   

gamepass at $180 costs more than buying 1 game a year even at full price and gamepass misses out on most of the biggest games: obviously all of nintendo/sony first party but also things like CoD/fifa/GTA/RE.   a vast majority of console buyers just don't play enough games to justify gamepass.  yes it is a great value for the gamers that play 52 games in a year but that isn't a huge market.  


FACT: bethesada's games are very, very popular

it will be very curious to see if MS makes bethesada's games exclusive to xbox/PC.   i think they loose a lot of money by not being on playstation in the short term but being exclusive to xbox raises the value of the xbox brand by a ton.  i personally think it is worth it to launch exclusive because their games really are popular enough to rescue the entire platform.    ...unless they make another fallout 76 level of failure.  

i really feel like MS's entire xbox rides or dies on the quality of bethesda's next game.




in the short term i think sony is fine.   but if MS can elevate their first party from the trash is currently is to a quality even just reasonably close to that of sony i think sony is in for a lot of trouble.  even though the gamepass market isn't massive it is the early adopters that will benefit the most from it.   if by the end of the gen MS is on parity to sony i can really see the next gen going wildly in favor of xbox.   

but on this point i really don't know if MS has it in them to make great games.  i can see the GaaS influence seeping into all of their first party efforts.   halo infinite to me looks exactly what happens when the "businessmen" get in the way of the developers and the results are a disaster.  if they keep thinking content needs to be episodic as a way to "increase engagement" they fail and fail and fail again.


Featured Artist: Vanessa Hudgens

Legend

I think the gulf will be ~50 million just like this gen, but I think both systems will grow. At this point both Microsoft and Sony seem to be doing a better job attracting new gamers or upselling casuals vs taking players from the competition. A Sony fan has no reason to not want a PS5 and if an player stayed an Xbox fan through Xbox One, they'll be super excited with what Microsoft is working on now.

Xevross

Jan 05, 2021, 09:54 PM Last Edit: Jan 05, 2021, 09:55 PM by Xevross
I think the gulf will be ~50 million just like this gen, but I think both systems will grow. At this point both Microsoft and Sony seem to be doing a better job attracting new gamers or upselling casuals vs taking players from the competition. A Sony fan has no reason to not want a PS5 and if an player stayed an Xbox fan through Xbox One, they'll be super excited with what Microsoft is working on now.
Its more like 65m this gen.

It is a weird one. I think HW will be similar but MS will grow their revenue a lot due to game pass, Bethesda and PC. So it'll still be 2:1 HW and software sell through (perhaps more like 1.8:1 this time), but instead of being 2:1 revenue and profit like this gen, it'll be more like 1.5:1 or even xbox will fully catch up, and of course this is the most important metric business-wise.

Legend

Its more like 65m this gen.

It is a weird one. I think HW will be similar but MS will grow their revenue a lot due to game pass, Bethesda and PC. So it'll still be 2:1 HW and software sell through (perhaps more like 1.8:1 this time), but instead of being 2:1 revenue and profit like this gen, it'll be more like 1.5:1 or even xbox will fully catch up, and of course this is the most important metric business-wise.
65=~50  8)

I agree about gamepass. I do not like that the industry is going in that direction but I think it's a huge profit maker. Costs more than gold and brings in that revenue on pc+mobile.