Around the time of Falcon Heavy's maiden launch, a small bit of news came out about how Elon Musk tried to cancel development of Falcon Heavy... twice.
Both times Gwynne Shotwell, COO of SpaceX, convinced him otherwise since they had already booked a few flights including a military one.
At the time this was just viewed as a fun story and people were happy Gwynne was there since FH is awesome.
However with hindsight, maybe Musk was right? Falcon Heavy has launched 3 times so far which is pretty good for a new rocket, but the next launch is not till late 2020. It is an amazing rocket serving a super small niche in the launch market. Here's why.
Falcon 9 used to suck.
Ok that's too harsh, but it was a simple rocket that only made the news because of who built it. 10,450 kg to low Earth orbit while Atlas V managed up to 20,520 kg and Delta IV managed 28,790 kg for example. SpaceX was restricted to only smaller payloads.
Falcon Heavy was announced to fix this. With up to 53,000 kg to LEO, it would have been able to launch any payload in development and start testing things for Mars. A fair amount of launch contracts were sold and it had a good market back in 2013.
Things changed though. Falcon 9 recieved upgrade after upgrade and more than doubled in power. The new Block 5s can do 22,800 kg to LEO, same as the strongest rockets from other companies (except DIVH at 28,790 kg). Launch contracts for FH were moved to F9 when possible. Falcon 9 took away a lot of its need to exist.
On top of this, the industry did not believe in Falcon Heavy. Every launch contract signed was for something that could be launched by another company. SpaceX tried to sell Falcon Heavy launches to NASA for Moon and Mars missions but SLS got in the way.
This was from 2014.
If embraced, Falcon Heavy could have rapidly accelerated plans to return to the Moon and simultaneously saved billions of dollars. At this point it is mostly too late and while NASA's new administrator Jim Bridenstine is giving the vehicle much more consideration, Artemis is full steam ahead on SLS and Falcon Heavy would at most only be used to deliver the LOP-G (lunar space station) propulsion module and some additional supplies.
As Falcon 9 improved, so did Falcon Heavy. The final version is capable of launching 10,800 kg more than initially announced and is a true beast of a rocket. It's very comparable to SLS Block 1 and is the second most powerful rocket ever developed. It is a truly incredible vehicle that enables many incredible things, but why doesn't it feel that way?
Enter Starship.
SpaceX is hard at work developing their next generation launch vehicle that is designed to replace Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. With 100,000+ kg to LEO and full reusability, Starship is posed to be simultaneously the largest rocket ever developed and one of the cheapest. It has been a dream concept at SpaceX for over a decade and hasn't been taken seriously by many, but it is rapidly becoming a reality.
These prototypes are not the final thing, but they demonstrate just how serious SpaceX is with Starship. Raptor engine production has been ramping up and the first commercial launches are expected in 2021.
Falcon Heavy launches have already started to move over. Initially scheduled for 2018, the #dearmoon project about sending artists around the Moon is now set to launch on Starship in 2023. Falcon Heavy will not be crew rated anymore as SpaceX plans to use Starship for all human launches. Even the red dragon mission has been effectively moved to Starship since Dragon propulsive landing was seen as a dead end.
Gwynne Shotwell was right in my opinion since Starship is risky and SpaceX could have gained lucrative launch contracts for Falcon Heavy from the military, but his perspective makes so much more sense after seeing how things have progressed. There is a very real possibility of Falcon Heavy only launching 2 traditional missions before being retired. The initial launch was only a test mission and the last launch was mostly a demonstrator so right now my count puts it at 1.
Both times Gwynne Shotwell, COO of SpaceX, convinced him otherwise since they had already booked a few flights including a military one.
At the time this was just viewed as a fun story and people were happy Gwynne was there since FH is awesome.
However with hindsight, maybe Musk was right? Falcon Heavy has launched 3 times so far which is pretty good for a new rocket, but the next launch is not till late 2020. It is an amazing rocket serving a super small niche in the launch market. Here's why.
Falcon 9 used to suck.
Ok that's too harsh, but it was a simple rocket that only made the news because of who built it. 10,450 kg to low Earth orbit while Atlas V managed up to 20,520 kg and Delta IV managed 28,790 kg for example. SpaceX was restricted to only smaller payloads.
Falcon Heavy was announced to fix this. With up to 53,000 kg to LEO, it would have been able to launch any payload in development and start testing things for Mars. A fair amount of launch contracts were sold and it had a good market back in 2013.
Things changed though. Falcon 9 recieved upgrade after upgrade and more than doubled in power. The new Block 5s can do 22,800 kg to LEO, same as the strongest rockets from other companies (except DIVH at 28,790 kg). Launch contracts for FH were moved to F9 when possible. Falcon 9 took away a lot of its need to exist.
On top of this, the industry did not believe in Falcon Heavy. Every launch contract signed was for something that could be launched by another company. SpaceX tried to sell Falcon Heavy launches to NASA for Moon and Mars missions but SLS got in the way.
This was from 2014.
If embraced, Falcon Heavy could have rapidly accelerated plans to return to the Moon and simultaneously saved billions of dollars. At this point it is mostly too late and while NASA's new administrator Jim Bridenstine is giving the vehicle much more consideration, Artemis is full steam ahead on SLS and Falcon Heavy would at most only be used to deliver the LOP-G (lunar space station) propulsion module and some additional supplies.
As Falcon 9 improved, so did Falcon Heavy. The final version is capable of launching 10,800 kg more than initially announced and is a true beast of a rocket. It's very comparable to SLS Block 1 and is the second most powerful rocket ever developed. It is a truly incredible vehicle that enables many incredible things, but why doesn't it feel that way?
Enter Starship.
SpaceX is hard at work developing their next generation launch vehicle that is designed to replace Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. With 100,000+ kg to LEO and full reusability, Starship is posed to be simultaneously the largest rocket ever developed and one of the cheapest. It has been a dream concept at SpaceX for over a decade and hasn't been taken seriously by many, but it is rapidly becoming a reality.
These prototypes are not the final thing, but they demonstrate just how serious SpaceX is with Starship. Raptor engine production has been ramping up and the first commercial launches are expected in 2021.
Falcon Heavy launches have already started to move over. Initially scheduled for 2018, the #dearmoon project about sending artists around the Moon is now set to launch on Starship in 2023. Falcon Heavy will not be crew rated anymore as SpaceX plans to use Starship for all human launches. Even the red dragon mission has been effectively moved to Starship since Dragon propulsive landing was seen as a dead end.
Gwynne Shotwell was right in my opinion since Starship is risky and SpaceX could have gained lucrative launch contracts for Falcon Heavy from the military, but his perspective makes so much more sense after seeing how things have progressed. There is a very real possibility of Falcon Heavy only launching 2 traditional missions before being retired. The initial launch was only a test mission and the last launch was mostly a demonstrator so right now my count puts it at 1.
