Microsoft Buys Zenimax/ Bethesda for $7.5B

[DerNebel]

What you wouldn't be happy if they bought

*Checks notes*

Sega?  

Worse things I suppose.  

Supposedly they bought two other studios.

Considering that Sega owns Atlus I would legitimately be fuming. Then again Sega is publicly traded, so I don't even see how that could just be hidden.

Also I still don't see what believable source that rumor has.

[the-pi-guy]

[Dr. Pezus]

God he really is an xbox fanboy isn't he.

I mean what?! MS is enabling Bethesda to keep making games? I mean lol...

[Xevross]

The video game market is like the mobile market right now.

Xbox are google, Sony are apple.

The more I think about this the better that analogy feels.

[Dr. Pezus]

The video game market is like the mobile market right now.

Xbox are google, Sony are apple.

The more I think about this the better that analogy feels.

Eh Xbox feels more like Apple except less popular

[Xevross]

Eh Xbox feels more like Apple except less popular

I guess depends how you look.

Apple do everything for their own platform, they make stuff which is only available on their own platform and nowhere else. Google has their own phones that they sell but they're really wanting to put their services and products on as many other phones as possible, its only apple that won't let them.

[Mmm_fish_tacos]

I want sony to buy sega.

[darkknightkryta]

Someone at MS probably ran numbers to Nadella for Gamepass "Gamepass + Xbox Live = billions a year in profit" or something.  Would I have thought they'd go and buy a publisher?  No, but here we are.  They're probably going to try and push Gamepass up the wazoo.  As far as Sony goes?  Believe it or not I can actually see down the line Sony and Microsoft partnering over gamepass.  Why?  I don't think Microsoft has been investing in game streaming and Sony already has a useable solution in place.  Plus with the rumours of PSX/PS2 games going to the service, I can see renewed interest in Sony pushing that.  Microsoft puts gamepass games in there and Sony still makes money off of the streaming, and depending on how much Microsoft wants to keep their Live subscriptions, the games might still need the PS Plus for online.  For this future to work though, the entire razor blade model has to go and hardware turns to profit.  That's where I feel everything is heading, and unfortunately, it's a scary future.  I'm glad I've been so disinterested in new games cause I don't think I'd want to play in this future.

[Xevross]

I have to wonder how much game pass costs to run. If they get to 100M subs that's about $1B revenue a month which is loads but they're also spending a lot on game dev and fees to over publishers and devs that have games on the service.

[Legend]

Someone at MS probably ran numbers to Nadella for Gamepass "Gamepass + Xbox Live = billions a year in profit" or something.  Would I have thought they'd go and buy a publisher?  No, but here we are.  They're probably going to try and push Gamepass up the wazoo.  As far as Sony goes?  Believe it or not I can actually see down the line Sony and Microsoft partnering over gamepass.  Why?  I don't think Microsoft has been investing in game streaming and Sony already has a useable solution in place.  Plus with the rumours of PSX/PS2 games going to the service, I can see renewed interest in Sony pushing that.  Microsoft puts gamepass games in there and Sony still makes money off of the streaming, and depending on how much Microsoft wants to keep their Live subscriptions, the games might still need the PS Plus for online.  For this future to work though, the entire razor blade model has to go and hardware turns to profit.  That's where I feel everything is heading, and unfortunately, it's a scary future.  I'm glad I've been so disinterested in new games cause I don't think I'd want to play in this future.

Microsoft has been making xCloud for streaming. It's already launching so no way would they partner with Sony for streaming.

I wonder how the economics of streaming really work. I think consoles will be sold "at cost" next gen because they'll make more money if people pay for the subscription but use local hardware to run it. Plus there are still lots of people and games that don't mesh well with streaming.

I have to wonder how much game pass costs to run. If they get to 100M subs that's about $1B revenue a month which is loads but they're also spending a lot on game dev and fees to over publishers and devs that have games on the service.

Pubs definitely get the majority of that revenue. That's probably one reason why they are so focused on increasing their first party studios.

[kitler53]

Someone at MS probably ran numbers to Nadella for Gamepass "Gamepass + Xbox Live = billions a year in profit" or something.  Would I have thought they'd go and buy a publisher?  No, but here we are.  They're probably going to try and push Gamepass up the wazoo.  As far as Sony goes?  Believe it or not I can actually see down the line Sony and Microsoft partnering over gamepass.  Why?  I don't think Microsoft has been investing in game streaming and Sony already has a useable solution in place.  Plus with the rumours of PSX/PS2 games going to the service, I can see renewed interest in Sony pushing that.  Microsoft puts gamepass games in there and Sony still makes money off of the streaming, and depending on how much Microsoft wants to keep their Live subscriptions, the games might still need the PS Plus for online.  For this future to work though, the entire razor blade model has to go and hardware turns to profit.  That's where I feel everything is heading, and unfortunately, it's a scary future.  I'm glad I've been so disinterested in new games cause I don't think I'd want to play in this future.

i mean, the numbers are easy to estimate.  I posted them in another thread but here they are again:



a subscription service as MS is pitching it (AAA game releasing day 1 on gamepass) is a massive money pit if you have 10 million subscribers and a massive money maker if you have 200 million subscribers.  MS needs to hit around 100 million subscribers (imo) to start being profitable.   to get to 100 million subscribers you need a few things:
- games need to be cross platform (console(s), PC, mobile, toasters)
- games need to be cross gen (nothing locked to high end hardware)
- games need to be released frequently (10 games a month minimum to keep people subscribed all year long instead of just 1 month out of a year)

so the top 2 points makes clear their commitment to PC and xbox one and a lack of next gen exclusives
the bottom point makes clear the massive amount of acquisitions because they need a lot more content

the math i put into that chart is very optimistic by the way,.. i gave gamepass credit for the full $15 even though that includes xbox live which is a subscription a majority of the xbox user base was already paying for.   it's not a subscription their PC base was paying for though so the real value of gamepass probably averages out to $10/month.

the math also improves if you release your software on competing platforms (steam, EGS, ps4, switch).  For those that will not buy into a subscription service any sales captured from unit sales reduces the cost of game development and lowers the amount of costs in providing content to the subscription service.   i'm not saying MS won't have any exclusives to their platform anymore but it's in their best interest to lure people to gamepass on "value" not exclusives for the short term or they are going to bleed money.  in the long term (once subscriptions are >50 million) exclusives will probably be required to move the needle to 200 million.

[Xevross]

Microsoft has been making xCloud for streaming. It's already launching so no way would they partner with Sony for streaming.

I wonder how the economics of streaming really work. I think consoles will be sold "at cost" next gen because they'll make more money if people pay for the subscription but use local hardware to run it. Plus there are still lots of people and games that don't mesh well with streaming.
Pubs definitely get the majority of that revenue. That's probably one reason why they are so focused on increasing their first party studios.

Microsoft and Sony are teaming up for the future of gaming - The Verge

Microsoft and Sony are already partnered on development of the cloud for gaming and content streaming.

[kitler53]

Microsoft and Sony are teaming up for the future of gaming - The Verge

Microsoft and Sony are already partnered on development of the cloud for gaming and content streaming.

my understanding is this relationship is more about sony needing MS's azure to power their cloud gaming.   not so sure MS is getting anything out of this.   ...but if xbox and playstation merged in the hardware-less future i suppose that is a win/win situation.

[darkknightkryta]

my understanding is this relationship is more about sony needing MS's azure to power their cloud gaming.   not so sure MS is getting anything out of this.   ...but if xbox and playstation merged in the hardware-less future i suppose that is a win/win situation.

My  guess is Sony will still provide the boxes.  I vaguely recall Nadella not caring about the game division, or someone anyways, because you'd need 300 million (Or whatever high number it was) Xboxes sold to make the profits that Microsoft wants.  The Xbox will never be able to do that.  So by divorcing from hardware and using all devices; you can reach that number more easily.  I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft wants gamepass on the PS5.  I wouldn't be surprised if MS buying Zenimax was more of a "Our way or no way" to make Sony play ball.

[kitler53]

My  guess is Sony will still provide the boxes.  I vaguely recall Nadella not caring about the game division, or someone anyways, because you'd need 300 million (Or whatever high number it was) Xboxes sold to make the profits that Microsoft wants.  The Xbox will never be able to do that.  So by divorcing from hardware and using all devices; you can reach that number more easily.  I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft wants gamepass on the PS5.  I wouldn't be surprised if MS buying Zenimax was more of a "Our way or no way" to make Sony play ball.

so xbox exists the hardware gig and sony continues to make hardware.
all xbox first party comes to the playstation store as console exclusives.  bascially still on PC but fudge nintendo.
playstation allows gamepass to come to the playstation store,. sony takes a 30% cut on gamepass as is standard these days
sony first party comes to gamepass day-1 with a fair compensation level per game published.


i dunno.  wouldn't be the worse future i can imagine.  at that point i would subscribe to gamepass too.  i'd be pretty sad that consoles are basically shame PC though.  the best part of consoles has always been games can be uber optimized for the locked hardware configuration meaning far more performance then you'd otherwise get out of the hardware.