December 2018 NPD - Switch 1.77M, XB1 920k, PS4 797k, Smash 3.6M

Started by Xevross, Jan 22, 2019, 09:06 AM

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Cute Pikachu

so is this enough to make 20M realistic?
It's still technically possible. We need to know ROTW. Next Tuesday will tell us. Over 10 million it's possible. Under and it's not happening
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Switch Software Sales Guide:
http://vizioneck.com/forum/index.php?topic=5895.msg218699#new

kitler53

Was just thinking how this was supposed to be an everybody wins kind of month, but all 3 ended up being disappointing in some way. Guess November really was a one-off.

Switch needs to sell 1.9M over the next 4 months to stay ahead of PS5 launch aligned, which obviously isn't happening. I wonder if Switch will ever manage to be ahead of PS4 after April's numbers. It might be able to do it next April, since 2016 was a bit of a dip for PS4.
meh, nintendo has never been known for "long tails" on there systems.  even their most popular systems started YoY declines far earlier than sony/ms systems.  ..they just had higher peaks.  switch is wrapping up it's 2nd year now.  year 3 will be mostly flat and decline in year 4 if it follows the typical nintendo sales curve.  even though the early sales curve is keeping up with ps4 i don't expect it to say on par in the later years.

It's still technically possible. We need to know ROTW. Next Tuesday will tell us. Over 10 million it's possible. Under and it's not happening
well n. america is nintendo's best market.  if it can't hit 2M in america i don't know how RotW contributes 8 million.   ...or am i mis-reading that sentence?


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ethomaz

well n. america is nintendo's best market.  if it can't hit 2M in america i don't know how RotW contributes 8 million.   ...or am i mis-reading that sentence?
You need to account Japan too and others months of quarter.

He is saying over 10m shipped for Q3.

Xevross

so is this enough to make 20M realistic?
Well it gives us an indication of how much Nintendo might have to stuff the channels to reach 20M (spoilers: its a lot).

I think if Switch sell-through was up 30% WW from 2017 then the 20M shipped target would be hit without any stuffing of the channel needed.

Switch is up 15% in the US this year. If would have needed 2.5M to reach that 30%, which is why when insiders were teasing Switch being decently over 2M we were thinking that 30% up YOY (or close to it) was achieved and that they'll hit the target. But only 15% up in the US and 7% in Japan (which account for over half of Switch's total sales) suggest 30% is really unlikely. We also know its 24% up in France, 22% in the UK so the rest of the world isn't making up for it.

If we estimate sell-through is 15% up WW, which seems reasonable, then shipped is probably +20-25% (as Switch was supply constrained last year). That would mean Switch so far this FY is in the range 14.8-15.5M (after 9.8-10.5M shipped for the holiday Q). So yeah, Q1 will need to be massive for Switch to hit that 20M.

My prediction is that they scraped 10M for the holiday Q (which is still incredible in its own right), and they'll ship just under 4M in Q1 for just under 19M total.

meh, nintendo has never been known for "long tails" on there systems.  even their most popular systems started YoY declines far earlier than sony/ms systems.  ..they just had higher peaks.  switch is wrapping up it's 2nd year now.  year 3 will be mostly flat and decline in year 4 if it follows the typical nintendo sales curve.  even though the early sales curve is keeping up with ps4 i don't expect it to say on par in the later years.

well n. america is nintendo's best market.  if it can't hit 2M in america i don't know how RotW contributes 8 million.   ...or am i mis-reading that sentence?
Yeah exactly, but if it manages to be flat over the next year then it will get ahead of PS4 launch aligned after April for a while. Since legs will be poorer though, I don't think it'll last until the following April as PS4 had a nice uptick that year.

And as Etho said, 10M is shipped for quarter which would be up 38% YOY worldwide. Q3 sell-through is up 32% in the US and I think Japan is similar, other markets are showing huge Q3 growth too. Shipped will be bigger growth than sell through. 10M should happen, but only just. imo it needed close to 11M for the 20M to be realistic.

Xevross

Retail leak from csheep on Era:

Smash Ultimate - 3,592,000
COD Black Ops 4 - 1,647,000
RDR2 - 1,435,000

New all time exclusive launch record for Smash, beating Halo 3 by almost 300k. Awesome performance, that's likely 4M+ with digital.

1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Unit Sales
1/ Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 3.6 millions, December 2018 (30 days / 5 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo 3 : 3.3 millions, September 2007 (12 days / 2 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo Reach : 3.3 millions, September 2010 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
4/ Halo 2 : 3.27 millions, November 2004 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
5/ Halo 4 : 3.2 millions, November 2012 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
6/ Pokemon Sun+Moon : ~3.2 millions (estimate), November 2016 (9 days / 2 weeks tracking)
7/ Super Smash Bros Brawl : 2.7 millions, March 2008 (27 days / 4 weeks tracking)
8/ Spiderman : 2.6+ millions*, September 2018 (23 days / 4 weeks tracking)
9/ Pokemon Black & White : 2.5 millions, March 2008
10/ GTA San Andreas : 2.06 millions, October 2004

Cute Pikachu

Smash Bros Ultimate Retail Sales Leaked!!!
Spoiler for Hidden:
About 3.6 Million according to csheep. NEW RECORD
The Vizioneck Nintendo Fanboy!

Switch Software Sales Guide:
http://vizioneck.com/forum/index.php?topic=5895.msg218699#new

Xevross

Smash Bros Ultimate Retail Sales Leaked!!!
Spoiler for Hidden:
About 3.6 Million according to csheep. NEW RECORD

You're slower than a tortoise with a 10kg weight on its back ;D

Cute Pikachu

Jan 22, 2019, 09:16 PM Last Edit: Jan 22, 2019, 09:56 PM by Cute Pikachu
For real though. With digital it's 4 million+ which is absolutely absurd.

Mat is asking for csheep's email. NPD/Nintendo isn't happy that number is out there
The Vizioneck Nintendo Fanboy!

Switch Software Sales Guide:
http://vizioneck.com/forum/index.php?topic=5895.msg218699#new

Dr. Pezus

For real though. With digital it's 4 million+ which is absolutely absurd.

Mat is asking for csheep's email. NPD/Nintendo isn't happy that number is out there
Why wouldn't Nintendo be?

ethomaz

Jan 22, 2019, 11:23 PM Last Edit: Jan 22, 2019, 11:24 PM by ethomaz
Retail leak from csheep on Era:

Smash Ultimate - 3,592,000
COD Black Ops 4 - 1,647,000
RDR2 - 1,435,000

New all time exclusive launch record for Smash, beating Halo 3 by almost 300k. Awesome performance, that's likely 4M+ with digital.

1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Unit Sales
1/ Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 3.6 millions, December 2018 (30 days / 5 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo 3 : 3.3 millions, September 2007 (12 days / 2 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo Reach : 3.3 millions, September 2010 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
4/ Halo 2 : 3.27 millions, November 2004 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
5/ Halo 4 : 3.2 millions, November 2012 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
6/ Pokemon Sun+Moon : ~3.2 millions (estimate), November 2016 (9 days / 2 weeks tracking)
7/ Super Smash Bros Brawl : 2.7 millions, March 2008 (27 days / 4 weeks tracking)
8/ Spiderman : 2.6+ millions*, September 2018 (23 days / 4 weeks tracking)
9/ Pokemon Black & White : 2.5 millions, March 2008
10/ GTA San Andreas : 2.06 millions, October 2004
That table is really interesting if you look at the number of days/weeks.

Pokémon Sun+Moon and Halo 3 are really close to each other... to be fair I'm more impressed with Halo 3 because Pokémon is inflated by the double dips.

Xevross

That table is really interesting if you look at the number of days/weeks.

Pokémon Sun+Moon and Halo 3 are really close to each other... to be fair I'm more impressed with Halo 3 because Pokémon is inflated by the double dips.
Yes although the days don't matter so much. Halo 3 only sold 400k the next month, for example. If it had 30 days of tracking like Smash it would probably still be 2nd, and Smash would win easily with digital.

Very safe to say Smash is the biggest exclusive launch ever.

Xevross



Smash at #5 for the year, outselling Spidey without bundles. Insanity.

ethomaz

Jan 22, 2019, 11:36 PM Last Edit: Jan 22, 2019, 11:41 PM by ethomaz

Riderz1337

Hello consumers of digital entertainment.

Switch is doing really good! All around everyone did well.
Legend made me remove this. Everybody riot.

BananaKing

Hello consumers of digital entertainment.

Switch is doing really good! All around everyone did well.
Wow. It's you. dang. Long time dude

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