Sony FY23 Q3 - sounds dire

Started by the-pi-guy, Feb 14, 2024, 12:58 PM

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the-pi-guy

Era


Sony shipped 8.2m PS5s in Q3 FY23:
YoY growth: 15.49% YoY Vs 7.1m units in Q3 FY22.
Significant QoQ growth: 67.35% QoQ Vs 4.9m units in Q2 FY23
- As it stands, Sony shipped 16.4m PS5s in the current FY, which accounts for roughly 65.6% of their target (25m PS5s shipped)
- 54.8m PS5s shipped since launch VS 57.1m PS4s in the same timeframe. Launch aligned, PS5 is currently lagging behind PS4 by 2.3m Units.

the-pi-guy



Quote
"In the past, we wanted to popularize console and the 1st party titles' main purpose was to make the console popular. It is true, but there is a synergy to it. So if you have strong first party content, not only with our console but also other platforms like computers, 1st party can be grown with multiplatform and that can help operating profit to improve. So that is another one we want to proactively work on.

I personally think there are opportunities out there for improvement of margins, so I would like to go aggressive in improving our margin performance." - Hiroki Totoki

the-pi-guy

Quote
Regarding first-party software, we aim to continue to focus on producing high-quality works and developing live service game. But while major projects are currently under development, we do not plan to release any new major existing franchise titles next fiscal year (ends March 31, 2024) like God of War Ragnarok and Marvel's Spider-Man 2. Although the burden of acquisition related costs will ease next fiscal year, we expect profit from first-party software to decrease slightly from this fiscal year due to the impact of the decrease in sales. Due to this, operating income for the next fiscal year is currently expected to increase slightly from this fiscal year. However, while this our baseline, we are reviewing measures for further improvement in profitability in advance of the annual forecast results announcement this May."

Sal from Gematsu

kitler53



Featured Artist: Vanessa Hudgens

kitler53

firstly,..  despite the narrative of an amazingly strong economy in the business/stock world I think these numbers really show consumers are struggling and a recession is around the corner. 

secondly,.. these statements from Sony are a PR disaster.   Sony stood to reap the benefits of MS's PR disaster but not anymore.  

I'm not rushing out the door but if Sony really does pivot to day-1 releases on PC I'm probably moving to steam.  

as minor as they are there are a lot of PC exclusives I want to play.  ps6 is DoA if day-1 PC is a public commitment. 


Featured Artist: Vanessa Hudgens

nnodley

Hopefully there is a new IP or something(maybe Cory's new IP) in between now and April 2025 if there isn't going to be any existing IP sequels released till then.  Ghost 2 is now for sure april 2025 or after.

PS studios output is fudgy bad this gen.  

their output has been leagues better than MS but still compared to PS4 its terrible

the-pi-guy

ps6 is DoA if day-1 PC is a public commitment.
For you personally, or for the market in general?

Personally, I will still buy a console in that case and I think most console players probably still will.  
Consoles are just easier...  

kitler53

Feb 14, 2024, 02:59 PM Last Edit: Feb 14, 2024, 03:19 PM by kitler53
I mean fairgame and concord are announced.  if those also miss the next year PS5 is going to implode.   you can't go a year with nothing.

also it just screams that Sony needs to reign in studios ambitions.    you should want to push things forward but need to respect your budget/constraints.   a games budget should never be so large that it takes 25 million units to break even.

For you personally, or for the market in general?

Personally, I will still buy a console in that case and I think most console players probably still will. 
Consoles are just easier... 
both?

definitely for myself.
1. i don't really replay old games.   i'd be a bit sad to walk away from my games libary but i wouldn't sell my ps5.   i could still play them if i wanted to.
2. PC has a lot of game that don't come to console.   i like indie games and puzzle games.   a lot of these games only comes to PC.
3. i could drop the sub to play multiplayer.   this is becoming a BIG thing for me as my kids are 10 and 8 this year.   my 10 year old is starting to want to play games that cannot be played mp on 1 piece of hardware  (he's really into foamstars for example).   not only would i need to buy games twice i would need to have 2 online subscriptions.   that is looking like a really, really expensive way to move forward.
4. i'm tech savvy enough to do it.
5. i don't really have a communicty on ps5 to care about.  i only have 1 friend (my soo often times mentioned co-op buddy).    he has a ps5 and a PC already.

probably for the entire market
1. this is pretty much summed up with my previous point 5.    a crud load of console gamers have PCs too.   i remember a survey of hardware ownership that was making the round a good 10 years back.   sure things could change but the highlights are:
- like 2/3 of PC gamers only have PC.   So yes,.. putting games out on PC can reach gamers that don't buy consoles.   i do think it's worth pointing out, however,  that if they aren't buying consoles now it may just be they are not interested in the games coming to consoles....
- ...but like 1/2 of console gamers also have a PC.   So putting games on PC means hardware redundancy for ~50% of the current console market.   whose going to buy 2 hardware that are 100% redundant??

you can see it on era.  there are dozens of posts that are summarized as "good, i can finally just play on PC".

i'm not saying there won't be anyone that would prefer to be on a console given the choice.   ...but investment in hardware (by sony) requires a return.  the fewer customers that buy the system the harder it is to justify that investment.     if ~120million is the number of consoles ps5 can sell in the current market consitions....   i think 60 million is the ceiling for  a world in which day-1 PC is a customer commitment.     so fudge it,.. i'm not going to wait around for their ecosystem to collapse in slow motion.  i'll move to PC right away if i can get all of sony's games (and MSs games) day-1 anyways.


Featured Artist: Vanessa Hudgens

the-pi-guy

I mean fairgame and concord are announced.  if those also miss the next year PS5 is going to implode.   you can't go a year with nothing.
They're not saying there's no games this year. There's no major franchise releases. Concord is a new IP, so it isn't included in that.

Ghost of Tsushima, I think is major, so that would probably confirm that's next year at best.

Not sure if a Astrobot game would be considered major at this point.  

you can see it on era.  there are dozens of posts that are summarized as "good, i can finally just play on PC".
Era isn't representative of the market as a whole.

kitler53

They're not saying there's no games this year. There's no major franchise releases. Concord is a new IP, so it isn't included in that.

Ghost of Tsushima, I think is major, so that would probably confirm that's next year at best.

Not sure if a Astrobot game would be considered major at this point.  

Era isn't representative of the market as a whole.
that was kind of my point exactly.   i agree that we should see some new IP from sony this year.   new IP is what sony is already showcasing so that should not come as a surprise to anyone.    not sure what "major franchise" anyone could even expect right now (from those who watch sony closely).   this seems to be just a statement to investors that generally speaking have no idea what's going on.

perhaps not the entire market.   ...but they do represent the industry's "whales" like myself.   if the whales leave for PC and only those more mainstream gamers are left (those that wait on buying a consoled instead of pre-ordering it or only buy 1 game a year ),...  ps6 is DoA.   it's exactly why gamepass was so devistating to xbox financials.    the whales love the service because it saves them soo much money.   casuals/mainstream couldn't care less because they were only buying 1 game a year anyways.


Featured Artist: Vanessa Hudgens

Legend

I really don't understand these companies.

They made a billion in profit from selling 3rd party games on ps5, looking at those last charts. Why do they act like this money is irrelevant while they chase a few extra million with pc ports?

Also I'm out of the loop. Ps5 sales are up yoy so even though this is below expectations, why is it dire?

the-pi-guy

Also I'm out of the loop. Ps5 sales are up yoy so even though this is below expectations, why is it dire?
Mostly the no major games this year + "multiplatform" talk + I forgot to include this one:



nnodley

Honestly given the lower amount of exclusives they've been putting out its still amazing its only 2.3m units behind ps4.  Any absolutely huge first party titles that start coming will help bridge that gap, I think.  

kitler53

Mostly the no major games this year + "multiplatform" talk + I forgot to include this one:



this is such an amazing direct quote to why i fudgy hate business sometimes.

like,.. read the fudgy room.    a business should grow when it can.  it should not be a requirement that all business grows.   there is nothing wrong with understanding that a particular business has no room for growth and instead focus on profit margin.    this obsessive need to "grow" is why things go "bust" all the time.   it's flat or irresponsible management.


Featured Artist: Vanessa Hudgens

the-pi-guy

It's probably not that "dire", probably mostly a continuation of their PC push.

But I'm expecting layoffs.

Sounds like this year will be kind of poor first party wise.