Yes?
It needed not a great November, but an extremely massive November and December to reach the numbers needed.
So far it's US numbers are behind all PS4 numbers in the USA for the past 4 years. Its YoY up in Japan, but not by massive amount. Its up in a good amount in the UK, but again behind PS4 numbers.
The reason I mention PS4 numbers because I'm using them as a reference point. PS4's biggest holiday season was at 9.7 million, and that number is no where near enough for switch to reach its 20 million forecast.
It needs 12~ million to reach that forecast, and that's a number that even the Wii didn't do.
So far it's trailer behind the PS4 in every major market with the exception of Japan, which will no doubt help move a lot of Switches, but It needs to do what, 7~ million world wide in the month of December alone? I'm just not seeing these numbers happening
It needed to be up around 50% YOY in Q3, and in November in the US it was up 75%. November has always been a much stronger month for Sony and Xbox over Nintendo, so its performance this year is fantastic. With December its going to match and probably even beat PS4's best ever holiday season in the west.
Using US as a guide, PS4's best ever final Q was 3.4M in 2015, and that was a quarter where it shipped 8.4M worldwide. In its 9.7M WW quarter it sold through 2.9M in the US. Switch is on 1.6M so far with Oct+Nov, and I expect it will reach a minimum of 3.4M with Dec NPD numbers, beating PS4's best. That will probably be roughly echoed in Europe.
PS4's best final Q in Japan is around 400k, so Switch is looking to pull a million over PS4 there. So with all these considered, I think 10M+ looks fairly likely for WW shipments. Depending on Europe 11M may be possible, which would put it in a great position to reach the 20M.
DK Tropical Freeze over 100k too!
Glad to see that game find new life on Switch and not in the hellish landscape of the Wii U.
RDR2 is the first game to hit the million milestone besides FIFA games within its first year.
Super Mario Party over 200k in Germany is very good for it.
Super Mario Party probably will be at 5-6 million shipped after December. Has a chance at being the best selling Mario Party of all time if it has legs.
Pokémon didngood numbers for only two weeks. Wouldn't be shocked if combined it's past 500k after December
Now Japan:
Switch is consistent that is for sure.
PS4 up year over year is great to see. Judge Eyes did great. God Eater 3 did fine numbers at face value but it's low for the series, may need the West.
Pokémon you disappoint me even if your numbers are very strong in the West.
Smash Bros is rediculous and will likely be past 3 million(including digital after New Years)
Now to Nintendo's PR:
Smash Bros 3 million in 11 days for US only- incredible
Zelda at 4 Million means it outsold Skyward Sword's lifetime sales worldwide in the US alone haha. That and God of War are the biggest revivals of the generation.
Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart are huge.
Pokémon is actually keeping up with X and Y(which was at 2.6 million at the end of December). It should be able to tie it or go ahead.
Super Mario Party is actually even more so impressive- fastest selling Mario Party crazy enough, as said before it'll probably be around 5-6 million shipped after december).
Thanks for correcting me in a constructive way.
SMP is doing so much better than I expected, its pretty crazy to see. Its performance in Japan this week is particularly crazy. Pokemon is a bit disappointing in Japan but I think that was to be expected, hopefully legs are okay.
