Movie Thread

Started by Dr. Pezus, May 25, 2014, 04:14 PM

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Xevross

I might feel different if it wasn't Disney at the top, but for the time being I agree that it is mostly fine.

Speaking of the fox buyout, has anything changed from that transition yet? Is Disney going to use Fox as a brand?
Yeah, the box office is literally just a measure of how watched each company's films are, its a direct result of consumer activity, so its not like its one company trying to monopolise a market. Disney are so dominant just because they put out the most big movies, there's nothing stopping other studios from doing the same, its just Disney got it right.

I have no idea, I'm presuming they're going to keep fox as its own brand.

Legend


Xevross

Endgame $8.3M dom, $22.1M international wednesday. Dom number is bad as I said already but thats an incredible day for international, only down 3%. Well, I guess its perfectly balanced.

Detective Pikachu is debuting this week as well. Tracking for a $50-75M dom opening and $160M+ worldwide, on the low end neither of those are exactly great but we'll see.

the-pi-guy

That Dom number almost physically hurts.  I'm disappointed.  

Dr. Pezus

Endgame $8.3M dom, $22.1M international wednesday. Dom number is bad as I said already but thats an incredible day for international, only down 3%. Well, I guess its perfectly balanced.
As it should be

Xevross

May 09, 2019, 08:16 PM Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 08:21 PM by Xevross
That Dom number almost physically hurts.  I'm disappointed. 
Yes although went up to $8.43M with actuals so at least we have that extra 130k. Situation is obviously evolving day by day, the next few days having great holds/ boosts will obviously make up for it, but the trend is downwards right now for sure in dom. Well $800m+ is secured anyway, which is great and it'll be nice to have a film in that 800-900 range finally. And as long as Avatar goes down WW I'll be happy :D Looking like its gonna land right around $2.50b after this weekend ($2.50b would be slightly worse WOW drops than IW), so lets see how it goes.

Looking forward to tracking the big films this summer, detective pikachu, aladdin, godzilla, spidey, the lion king and more, then we got frozen 2 and SWIX at the end of the year too!

Xevross

Pikachu $5.7M thursday previews (started at 4pm), that's kinda meh. International not looking great either. Don't see this film hitting $500M with these numbers. Real shame.

Xevross

May 10, 2019, 05:43 PM Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 05:55 PM by Xevross
Another bad domestic day for Endgame as it hit $7.5M (down 11%), $17.6M international is pretty meh as well. Good job the film is already over $2.3bil worldwide ;D

Little factoid: the MCU will finally have a film with a $100M+ gross from a country outside of China/ USA after today, as Endgame in the UK passes $100M.

the-pi-guy

On the bright side, it'll probably have a $60-65 million weekend.
7.5m is around 20% better than the original Avengers for the same Thursday, so $67 million if that holds up.

After two great weekends, it seems like it's doing regular Avenger's numbers. 

On the one hand, the drops are disappointing, on the other hand, it probably should have been expected, and it's still doing pretty well. 

Even if it only does as well as IW (doing another ~192m), it would end up around 852 million.  Solidly second place biggest movie in the US, which is what we were expecting anyways. 


If it performs the 9% better for the rest of it's run that it did for Thursday that'd put it at almost $870m. 


Not the best analysis, but still good enough, that the movie should do really great.

Xevross

May 10, 2019, 06:12 PM Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 06:27 PM by Xevross
On the bright side, it'll probably have a $60-65 million weekend.
7.5m is around 20% better than the original Avengers for the same Thursday, so $67 million if that holds up.

After two great weekends, it seems like it's doing regular Avenger's numbers. 

On the one hand, the drops are disappointing, on the other hand, it probably should have been expected, and it's still doing pretty well. 

Even if it only does as well as IW (doing another ~192m), it would end up around 852 million.  Solidly second place biggest movie in the US, which is what we were expecting anyways. 


If it performs the 9% better for the rest of it's run that it did for Thursday that'd put it at almost $870m. 


Not the best analysis, but still good enough, that the movie should do really great.
Yeah I think its falling down to IW numbers pretty quickly, so ~192m is roughly what its heading for unless late legs surprise. I'd say $840-870m is the range for dom, call it $852m. China should end around $635m, meaning OS-C needs almost exactly $1.3bil for Avatar to go down. Its at $1.075B after thursday numbers, so ~$220m more needed. IW made about $210m more from the same point.

So basically Endgame needs to match IW from here to beat Avatar. Just went to check and IW's respective thursday overseas was $17.4M without including China numbers, so this really isn't a sure thing.

Edit: in fact that $17.6m figure for Endgame includes $4m from China, so OS-C was only $13.6M compared to IW's $17.4M... so unless I'm missing something Avatar isn't looking so good any more. Double edit: that thursday for IW was boosted by schools being out in Europe apparently as well as holidays in places like Indonesia, so hard to judge. Lets see how the weekends compare.

Xevross

May 10, 2019, 06:15 PM Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 08:28 AM by Xevross
For future reference: IW weekend was $70M OS-C (FSS) and $62M dom, lets see how Endgame fares. OS-C for the following week:

Mon: 8.5, Tue: 7.6, Wed: 7.0, Thur: 4.4, Weekend: 28.8

BananaKing

So is this thing gonna beat avatar WW or what?

the-pi-guy

So is this thing gonna beat avatar WW or what?
I don't pay attention to WW as much as Xev does, but it's looking less likely than it was.  I think we'll know a lot more when we see the weekend.  

Almost certainly will make another $200m in the US, for the total run.

The movie is way bigger than the last one in China.  If it has legs like IW (which I have no idea if it will, it's way outsold IW already), it can expect to make another $60m.

Hopefully Xev will have better numbers, but I think it'll be close.  

Dr. Pezus

So is this thing gonna beat avatar WW or what?
Yes or no

Xevross

May 11, 2019, 07:47 AM Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 08:34 AM by Xevross
So is this thing gonna beat avatar WW or what?
Yeah there's now a growing discussion on BOT about whether Avatar is slipping away, a lot of people are still saying "Avatar is locked, no way it misses" but I don't think they've actually put much thought into the numbers we've been getting this week. I think if Endgame doesn't at least match the numbers I mentioned below, Avatar ain't happening barring a sudden turn in late legs.

For future reference: IW weekend was $70M OS-C and $62M dom, lets see how Endgame fares.
Endgame friday looking $16-17m dom according to BOT insiders, which isn't that great. Means it may be heading for around that $62m figure.


I don't pay attention to WW as much as Xev does, but it's looking less likely than it was.  I think we'll know a lot more when we see the weekend. 

Almost certainly will make another $200m in the US, for the total run.

The movie is way bigger than the last one in China.  If it has legs like IW (which I have no idea if it will, it's way outsold IW already), it can expect to make another $60m.

Hopefully Xev will have better numbers, but I think it'll be close. 
Be careful with using numbers on boxofficemojo for foreign markets, they do a weird thing with exchange rates which retroactively changes past grosses. IW mad $200.1M opening weekend and $376M total. Endgame is currently projected to pull in $40m more from China, compared with $54m for IW. Endgame burned a lot of demand last week when China had a holiday wed-sat and the exchange rate is worse now.

That means Endgame needs $420m more from WW-C to beat Avatar, and IW grossed $402m from this point (198 dom 204 OS-C)

OS-C for the following week: Weekend 70, Mon: 8.5, Tue: 7.6, Wed: 7.0, Thur: 4.4, Weekend 28.8

dang I forgot how much Deadpool 2 cut into IW's legs, you can see right where it hit. Yeah OS-C should be beatable.

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