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The $200bn video games industry is reckoning with its biggest slowdown in 30 years, as the huge growth driven by smartphone gaming and the latest generation of consoles reaches its limits.
Hardware sales are slowing, with Sony cutting its forecast for PlayStation 5 sales this week. Consumer spending on mobile gaming declined last year, down 2 per cent to $107.3bn according to Data.ai, which forecasts low single-digit growth in 2024.
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After the PlayStation 5 surpassed 50mn units in December, Hiroki Totoki, Sony's group president and interim head of its gaming unit, said this week that it was "entering the latter half of the console cycle . . . so we anticipate a gradual decline in unit sales from next fiscal year onwards".
Heavy discounting of the PS5 in 2023 has already contributed to what Totoki called a "significant" drop in Sony's gaming operating profits. He warned that Sony does "not plan to release any new major existing franchise titles" in the fiscal year starting in April, depriving it of any boost from bankable, big-budget games such as Spider-Man or God of War.
Microsoft, whose Xbox has been left a distant third behind Nintendo and Sony, said this week it was looking to sell more of its own games on rival consoles, as it looks to tap new sources of growth in an increasingly saturated market after paying $75bn for Activision Blizzard last year. The widely anticipated launch of a new Nintendo console later this year may only accelerate the drop-off in PlayStation and Xbox sales, as players save up for the next new thing.
"There is a console-specific problem in the games industry: nobody is buying an Xbox, PS5 has peaked at the cost of significant discounting and everyone is waiting for Switch 2.0," said Gareth Sutcliffe at Enders Analysis. "Consoles have proven that they are not a growth model for gaming -- they top out at a very clear number."
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Cutting prices is a double-edged sword. The huge popularity of free-to-play online games such as Fortnite and Roblox consumes hours of playtime that had previously been spent on $70 titles. The strong network effects of multiplayer games, such as Call of Duty, also make it harder for new entrants to succeed. "Thousands of titles are hitting every month and the success rate is very low," he said. "You're faced with significant challenges in trying to break new product into the market."
The rising costs of developing blockbuster games has also raised the stakes. "When you're talking about a budget that's $100mn plus, even for a big company, if you miss with two or three of those then commercially you're on the ropes," Harding-Rolls said.
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That has driven a Hollywood-style dependence on rebooting the same big franchises by Sony, Microsoft, Electronic Arts and other big games companies. At the same time, entertainment giants are showing a renewed interest in gaming -- adding new competition for existing players in a shrinking market.ft
Disney made a $1.5bn investment in Fortnite's creator Epic Games this month to create what the studio's chief Bob Iger called "a huge Disney universe that will be for gaming and for play", while Netflix is also expanding its games offering.
