Bet: Will the Activision Deal close? - It has closed

Started by the-pi-guy, Feb 01, 2023, 05:14 PM

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BananaKing


the-pi-guy

So what are the remedies btw?
Potentially.
They threw out 5 options
1.) Spinning off CoD by itself, MS takes the rest of Activision Blizzard King.
2.) Spinning off Activision, Microsoft takes Blizzard King
3.) Spinning off Activision Blizzard, Microsoft takes just King.
4.) Cancelling the deal
5.) Convincing the CMA to take behavioral remedies. Which even the 10 year CoD deals aren't enough.
MS sounds like they're still aiming to make behavioral remedies.

1-3 are structural remedies, 5 is behavioral remedies.

They haven't given any specific examples of what kind of behavioral remedy they would need to see.
The potential remedy that MS threw out is the 10 year access on other platforms. I might have been a bit too strong in my previous comment, I'm not sure if the 10 year access is enough for the CMA. It might not be enough.

kitler53

1-3 are structural remedies, 5 is behavioral remedies.

They haven't given any specific examples of what kind of behavioral remedy they would need to see.
The potential remedy that MS threw out is the 10 year access on other platforms. I might have been a bit too strong in my previous comment, I'm not sure if the 10 year access is enough for the CMA. It might not be enough.
maybe i'm biased but that report made it sound like the 10 year deal is not enough.


Featured Artist: Vanessa Hudgens

the-pi-guy

https://www.resetera.com/threads/the-microsoft-activision-blizzard-acquisition-ot-antitrust-simulator-up-cma-gives-provisional-findings-possible-remedies-to-acquisition.633344/page-508#post-101245474

Quote
There are different reasons to hire an activism defense team on M&A, among others: 1) because you are going to change the terms of a deal already announced 2) because you are going to divest assets to a third company or 3) because you are going to "de-merge" a previously announced deal.

When something like that happens you are going to get a lot of unhappy shareholders. :p So, you need to defend from different legal tactics that they'll use to abort the change that you are making to the original plan.

Maybe it's just a backup plan, but if true, it's an interesting development...

This seems like speculation on speculation (that Activision hired an activism defense team)

Legend

https://www.resetera.com/threads/the-microsoft-activision-blizzard-acquisition-ot-antitrust-simulator-up-cma-gives-provisional-findings-possible-remedies-to-acquisition.633344/page-508#post-101245474

This seems like speculation on speculation (that Activision hired an activism defense team)
This just shows that Phil Spencer is even more confident!

Phil Spencer Interview
Given a year ago, for me, I didn't know anything about the process of doing an acquisition like this. The fact that I have more insight, more knowledge about what it means to work with the different regulatory boards, I'm more confident now than I was a year ago, simply based on the information I have and the discussions that we've been having.
...
So my confidence remains high. We're actively working with the regulatory boards around the world that need to approve for this, and it's been a learning experience for me. A lot of time spent, a lot of travel, a lot of conversations, but they're conversations where I get to talk about our industry and the work that we do and why we do it. I think the more regulators are informed about what gaming is, how the business runs, who the players are, and what our aspiration is as Team Xbox is just a good thing for the industry itself.


kitler53

https://www.resetera.com/threads/the-microsoft-activision-blizzard-acquisition-ot-antitrust-simulator-up-cma-gives-provisional-findings-possible-remedies-to-acquisition.633344/page-508#post-101245474

This seems like speculation on speculation (that Activision hired an activism defense team)
i mean, that last bit is completely relevant.   

if i were ABK i would do this.   that CMA clearly details there is a non-0% of the deal needing to be changed to pass regulation.   even if i were confident it will go though i'd still prepare for the worst case scenario.  that's not the kind of thing you prepare for after the fact.   


Featured Artist: Vanessa Hudgens

the-pi-guy


the-pi-guy



EC is likely to take any behavioral remedies the CMA takes.

On the other end of it, supposedly MS and Sony are meeting again for the first time in over a year. Apparently Sony is pushing for a stronger CoD guarantee.  

BananaKing

So wait, we made a bet that it will either pass or not. But we didn't take into consideration remedies, because that's not technically the same

the-pi-guy

So wait, we made a bet that it will either pass or not. But we didn't take into consideration remedies, because that's not technically the same
My intention was more whether it got blocked or not.

But the OP was ambiguous.

If people want, we can change the betting to:
- MS gets all of ABK with behavioral remedies.
- MS gets part of ABK.
- MS gets none of ABK.

Have to put it into 3 pools.  

the-pi-guy


Legend

My intention was more whether it got blocked or not.

But the OP was ambiguous.

If people want, we can change the betting to:
- MS gets all of ABK with behavioral remedies.
- MS gets part of ABK.
- MS gets none of ABK.

Have to put it into 3 pools.  
Op says activision so that's what I'm going with. If they get king and bliz but lose cod, I lost the bet imo.

the-pi-guy


the-pi-guy

Some details from today's briefing


Quote
- Microsoft and ABK have briefed the European Commission on potential remedies to ease competition concerns.
- MS and ABK had 45 minutes this afternoon to address the topic, followed by a 15-minute Q&A session.
- Sony has cemented its position as the main opponent to the deal, and is being granted twice the time to intervene on the hearing than other third parties are.
- Sony had 30 minutes reserved for its participation, whereas Nvidia, Google, Valve, Electronic Arts and the European Games Developer Federation each had 15 minutes.
- This morning the commission has heard presentations by Phil Spencer and Bobby Kotick explaining the rationale behind the deal.
- There were also interventions by advisors from MS and ABK about why the deal doesn't pose competition concerns.

- While Sony has held talks with Microsoft on platform access, it has stressed that licensing deals won't ease competition concerns.


the-pi-guy

Feb 21, 2023, 06:27 PM Last Edit: Feb 21, 2023, 06:30 PM by the-pi-guy




>Today's Nintendo deal relates to current and future Xbox titles for now, and then Activision Blizzard games if the buyout is included, Smith says.

This is wild.

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