I am thinking about throwing in a few grand
Why does wall street believe the deal will fail?
Why does wall street believe the deal will fail?
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Started by BananaKing, Jan 18, 2022, 01:41 PM
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I am thinking about throwing in a few grandThey think the US government might not allow the deal. At the very least there is enough uncertainty that it won't go through.
Why does wall street believe the deal will fail?
They think the US government might not allow the deal. At the very least there is enough uncertainty that it won't go through.Good news for the industry if it doesn't go through.
Senators are urging the FTC to consider against it. There are some consolidation concerns, there are worker rights concerns being cited (that MS acquiring Activision will make it harder to unionize for example, which is what is currently happening.).
I've seen several people cite that there is about a 60% chance the deal goes through.
Good news for the industry if it doesn't go through.it's not that we believe it will fail but that it could fail due to government opposition. pair that with ATVI's terrible last quarter and overall slump in the market ATVI will drop by (imo) 30-50% if the deal is blocked.
Guess I'll have to study this a bit more.
Good news for the industry if it doesn't go through.How much was the stock worth before the deal was announced? Even if it doesn't go through, it's not like you'd lose all your investment.
Guess I'll have to study this a bit more.
| VizionEck Cube Royale is releasing this year "I'm Mike Armbrust" -Me |  |  |
How much was the stock worth before the deal was announced? Even if it doesn't go through, it's not like you'd lose all your investment.It was around ~$65/share.
How much was the stock worth before the deal was announced? Even if it doesn't go through, it's not like you'd lose all your investment.I am worried about the ramifications of what doesn't happen if it doesn't go through. But of course Activision can still have a golden gen and stock might jump back up.
I want to be super clear about this: Xbox has been widely regarded, basically since its creation, as the worst division inside MS for women.
That has not changed.
[Business Insider] Microsoft Still Hasn't Cleaned Up Its Toxic Culture Issues, Employees Worried About Activision Blizzard Acquisitioni don't have any insider information on MS or xbox....
SONY: They say that from a development/publication perspective, game development typically involves an early stage that is neutral in relation to the platform, before the game is adapted for one or more specific platforms.
They believe that all games compete for engagement of the player. Players choose their gaming platform based on pricing, technical features, and available game types. The available content is the main factor for the player to choose a platform.
They say that there are few barriers to entry in game development and publishing for PC. That only one developer can create an "indie" game and distribute it online, but creating a high-end AAA game (like Activision's Call of Duty) requires a budget of hundreds of millions of dollars and thousands of employees.
They say that apart from Activision there are few developers/publishers capable of producing AAA games, such as EA (FIFA), Take-Two/Rockstar (Grand Theft Auto) and Epic Games (Fortnite). These games tend to be long-running franchises with big budgets, multi-year development cycles and very supportive followers.
Despite all of that, Sony believes that none of these developers could create a franchise to rival Activision's Call of Duty, which stands out as a gaming category on its own. That's why they believe that Call of Duty is so popular that it influences users' choice of console. In fact, their network of loyal users is so ingrained that even if a competitor had the budget to develop a similar product, it would not be able to create a rival.
They talk about the time, money, number of employees, millions of followers, sales and other data points related to Call of Duty to show how it's a very unique franchise that cannot be replaced.
They agree that subscription services compete with games purchased for a one-time fee. But they think that the lowest upfront costs of subscription services could be anti competitive in relation to publishers who recoup the significant investments in games by selling them for an upfront fee. They also think that this could harm consumers by reducing the quality of the games.
They say that over the past five years, Game Pass has grown to capture approximately 60-70% of the global subscription services market (that marketshare is even greater in Brazil, where Game Pass represents approximately 70-80% of the PC subscription services market).
They believe that it would take several years for a competitor - even with substantial investments - to create a rival effective for Game Pass.
Call of Duty represents an important revenue stream for the PlayStation (they provided data but it's redacted), and it is one of SIE's biggest sources of revenue from third parties.
Hypothetically, would Sony attempt pursuing Take Two or perhaps even just Rockstar and GTA?Aren't Take Two doing great though?
There aren't many third party things that hold a candle to GTA.
| VizionEck Cube Royale is releasing this year "I'm Mike Armbrust" -Me | | |
Aren't Take Two doing great though?Take Two definitely isn't motivated to sell. They're definitely doing great.
Not sure Sony would want their whole portfolio but in general they fit. Kerbal Space Program by Sony would be interesting.
A few months ago, some analysts were expecting that Sony would lose software market share.Shawn isn't even with Sony anymore so i wouldn't put much weight behind his opinion.
Shawn Layden replied with a meme that said "I find it highly unlikely".
Which feels like a lot of confidence, after the Activision acquisition.
