Switch Sales Trend

Started by SWORDF1SH, Sep 07, 2017, 10:29 PM

previous topic - next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

SWORDF1SH

I think long term he'll be right.  Wii didn't have much of a life span, despite its monstrous start.  I doubt the Switch can keep up even that momentum outside of Japan.
I expect it to have a similar sales trend when compared to Wii

Legend

I keep expecting Switch sales to drop off but that's yet to happen. I'm obviously wrong about it.

the-pi-guy

I keep expecting Switch sales to drop off but that's yet to happen. I'm obviously wrong about it.
Nintendo is doing really good with keeping games coming.  

A huge Zelda game, Mario+Rabbids, Mario Kart 8 deluxe, Super Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2.  
That's just the first year, and these are all monster games.  Take Mario Kart, the Wii version sold almost 37 million copies.  
Even though the Wii was a freak of nature, even Mario Kart 8 still managed to sell over 8 million on the Wii U.  

New games to come next year.  Plus there's Pokemon in development.  If they keep it up....  Jeez.  

DerNebel

Unless Nintendo starts to heavily rerelease Wii U games early next year on the Switch, like Smash or Mario Maker, games that should actually have a tangible effect on sales will probably not come until the end of the year (Pokemon, maybe Animal Crossing or something).

I reckon that once the droughts hit in the first months of 2018 sales will slow down, especially since the honeymoon period will be over by then, I doubt filler content like Kirby or Yoshi will be able to keep up momentum at that point. I still don't see the Switch outselling the 3DS lifetime.

Legend

Unless Nintendo starts to heavily rerelease Wii U games early next year on the Switch, like Smash or Mario Maker, games that should actually have a tangible effect on sales will probably not come until the end of the year (Pokemon, maybe Animal Crossing or something).

I reckon that once the droughts hit in the first months of 2018 sales will slow down, especially since the honeymoon period will be over by then, I doubt filler content like Kirby or Yoshi will be able to keep up momentum at that point. I still don't see the Switch outselling the 3DS lifetime.
What do you expect the 3DS to reach?

I generally agree but it takes time to build a narrative. 6 months without any big Switch games will not matter too much unless PS4/PC get some back to back GOTYs during that period.

DerNebel

What do you expect the 3DS to reach?

I generally agree but it takes time to build a narrative. 6 months without any big Switch games will not matter too much unless PS4/PC get some back to back GOTYs during that period.
You mean like God of War, Spider-Man or Red Dead Redemption 2? :P

It depends on how long Nintendo is interested in keeping the 3DS alive but I'd say some around but below 80 million units.

I don't think it's really a narrative that needs to be created, it's just that the Nintendo fanbase is limited and that once the first 3rd party AAA games come out, underperform and make it clear that the Switch is not going to get the important 3rd party games going forward (or clearer, I thought people were already aware that the Switch wasn't going to become a third party machine, but yesterdays reaction has once again showed me that I've obviously shown too much faith in the Nintendo fanbase), it'll become obvious that outside of the Nintendo fanbase, there's no reason to expect a significant influx of new people.

I simply expect the first half of next year to be the first time, where that situation is going to show, Kirby and a late port of Wolfenstein 2 are hardly going to move systems and by then fire will have died down a lot.

darkknightkryta

To be honest I haven't seen the Wii hype with this thing.  None of my students have one (Nintendo's bread and butter) and I don't see grandparents running out to buy one for themselves.  Or soccer moms for that matter.  I guess the true question I'm wondering, is who's buying it now?  Is there enough hardcore Nintendo people who don't own a Wii U, but would buy a Switch for a higher price?

the-pi-guy

To be honest I haven't seen the Wii hype with this thing.  None of my students have one (Nintendo's bread and butter) and I don't see grandparents running out to buy one for themselves.  Or soccer moms for that matter.  I guess the true question I'm wondering, is who's buying it now?  Is there enough hardcore Nintendo people who don't own a Wii U, but would buy a Switch for a higher price?
Oh, it won't sell like the Wii.  There's nothing interesting here for grandparents.  
With that said, I know a good number of people who have one or want one.  

I suspect we'll see more in the next year or so.  If sales start plateauing, then it'll either be because Nintendo stopped caring or the Switch isn't grabbing on to casuals as much as we thought.  

Cute Pikachu

Well it has Pokémon, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing, and Fire Emblem coming so it still has a lot of bigger hits.
"You wanna know just where I'm at
Well let me tell you 'bout it
I put my city on the map"
-J. Cole
How do people get gifs?

darkknightkryta

Well it has Pokémon, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing, and Fire Emblem coming so it still has a lot of bigger hits.
But then that's it until the next Pokemon.  That's going to be like a 2 year drought.  Though I fancy the idea of docking my Switch to play Pokemon on my T.V.

DerNebel

I think I want to play a real Pokemon game on the Switch, but honestly I'm not sure I would still enjoy the newer Pokemon games, I've regularly tried the newer entries through emulation, but always fell off at some point, while I've replayed the games in the first gen many times.

Pokemon nowadays might have too much weird shame going on that you have to keep track off, for me to still enjoy. Also the more recent new Pokemon designs have been pretty whack imo and while I fully understand, that it's the series mascot I still find it boring that Pikachu still gets dragged out constantly for every new game.

Legend

I think I want to play a real Pokemon game on the Switch, but honestly I'm not sure I would still enjoy the newer Pokemon games, I've regularly tried the newer entries through emulation, but always fell off at some point, while I've replayed the games in the first gen many times.

Pokemon nowadays might have too much weird shame going on that you have to keep track off, for me to still enjoy. Also the more recent new Pokemon designs have been pretty whack imo and while I fully understand, that it's the series mascot I still find it boring that Pikachu still gets dragged out constantly for every new game.
I'm playing Pokemon moon and really enjoying it but yeah it doesn't have the same charm. I completely ignore all the extra stupid features and hopefully that doesn't screw me over.

Cute Pikachu

You also gotta remember that Nintendo has mostly combined their studios. The remaining main 3ds games are made externally.
"You wanna know just where I'm at
Well let me tell you 'bout it
I put my city on the map"
-J. Cole
How do people get gifs?

Legend

You also gotta remember that Nintendo has mostly combined their studios. The remaining main 3ds games are made externally.
I've never really known the structure of Nintendo studios. Is that just me or are they set up differently than Sony and Microsoft?

darkknightkryta

I've never really known the structure of Nintendo studios. Is that just me or are they set up differently than Sony and Microsoft?
I think they're structured with numbers or something.  Similar as to how Square Enix used to be structured with their teams.