One week to launch, what are your final Switch predictions?

Started by Legend, Feb 24, 2017, 07:06 AM

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Xevross

I guess I should have included some numbers here. Wii U did ~3.5 million for its first 9 months. Huge horrible failure.

Meanwhile 3DS which launched Feb 26 in Japan and March 25 in US+Europe shipped/sold 11.4 million in 2011. This was disappointingly poor for Nintendo.

PS4 did ~10 million and XBO did ~5 million.


I think 6 million would be bad for the Switch, especially with it being a hybrid system. The 4 million and below predictions could mean the end of Nintendo hardware imo.
Agreed, these predictions people are making seem absolutely crazy. Below 5 million would be disastrous in my opinion.

Let's not forget that it has its launch period, time to sort stock out and then holiday period in those 9 months, which the other consoles listed there didn't have. Its most comparable to 3DS, as you point out and I'm predicting it to do 2m less than that.

Horizon

Agreed, these predictions people are making seem absolutely crazy. Below 5 million would be disastrous in my opinion.

Let's not forget that it has its launch period, time to sort stock out and then holiday period in those 9 months, which the other consoles listed there didn't have. Its most comparable to 3DS, as you point out and I'm predicting it to do 2m less than that.
The 3DS was competing against the vita. The Switch is competing against a PS4 hitting its stride and Xbox One releasing the scoripo, lets not mention it will not have RDR2, Destiny 2, Battlefront 2, the new AC game etc on its system this fall. Having a superb Mario game will only get you so far.

Legend

The 3DS was competing against the vita. The Switch is competing against a PS4 hitting its stride and Xbox One releasing the scoripo, lets not mention it will not have RDR2, Destiny 2, Battlefront 2, the new AC game etc on its system this fall. Having a superb Mario game will only get you so far.
Vita released a year after 3DS.

I wonder how many early Switch owners will already own a PS4 or XBO. Strong games for the other systems might not hurt Nintendo that much at this point in the generation.

the-pi-guy

Feb 25, 2017, 07:29 PM Last Edit: Feb 25, 2017, 07:52 PM by the-pi-guy
Vita released a year after 3DS.

I wonder how many early Switch owners will already own a PS4 or XBO. Strong games for the other systems might not hurt Nintendo that much at this point in the generation.
3DS was also 250$ until around when the Vita came out. 

the-pi-guy

Agreed, these predictions people are making seem absolutely crazy. Below 5 million would be disastrous in my opinion.

Let's not forget that it has its launch period, time to sort stock out and then holiday period in those 9 months, which the other consoles listed there didn't have. Its most comparable to 3DS, as you point out and I'm predicting it to do 2m less than that.
I have no clue what to expect for switch sales.  

-Every Nintendo home console has sold less than the previous one, with one exception.  
But: Nintendo would have more of a leg to stand on and call it a portable when it feels convenient for them.  So maybe could find somewhere between Wii U and 3DS sales as most realistic.  

-Switch doesn't have very many games in the works.
But: the few that it does have are very solid.
And: the switch also has a few fantastic studios developing for it that never have developed for Nintendo before.  So that seems promising.  

Nintendo also seems to be advertising the system far better than they did with the Wii U.  
With the Wii U, I don't think a lot of people really realized it was it's own thing.  Or why it was something worth getting.  
With the Switch, they do seem to be advertising it, and showing some pretty cool applications of it.  


What I do know for sure, is that preorders are sold out at my walmart, Amazon, and Zelda is selling ludicrously well.  
I think it's probable for it to sell 500k the first day.  Possibly, but unlikely more.  

But after that, there's a lot up in the air.  Nintendo needs to advertise hard.  And they need to work on developing solid titles quickly.
It could do amazing, or it could do horrible.  
I'm leaning towards the latter but slightly.  Largely because Nintendo needs more work to develop titles.  They don't really make very many new IPs, they only release a few major titles.  

Probably being overly negative with the prediction itself, but it's a big unknown.  They could do great, and exceed every prediction just like they did with the Wii.  Or they could do awful and fail to reach Wii U levels.  

Legend

3DS was also 250$ until around when the Vita came out.  
The $80 cut was early August. Biggest and fastest price drop of any recent generation.

Wonder if Switch will do similar.

Dr. Pezus

The $80 cut was early August. Biggest and fastest price drop of any recent generation.

Wonder if Switch will do similar.
Yeah it was doing badly before that

the-pi-guy

If I recall somewhat correctly, around E3 that year, people were getting pretty excited about the Vita.  
250$ Vita vs 250$ 3DS.  
Think some people thought the Vita might have a chance to win.  Games+hardware+price.  

Then the 3DS saw a price cut.  :P

Xevross

The 3DS was competing against the vita. The Switch is competing against a PS4 hitting its stride and Xbox One releasing the scoripo, lets not mention it will not have RDR2, Destiny 2, Battlefront 2, the new AC game etc on its system this fall. Having a superb Mario game will only get you so far.
There's only a certain extent to which the switch is competing with PS4 and XB1. Its going to appeal to different demographics. Plus I'd also argue that 3DS has the strongest competition in smartphones

BananaKing

it will sell well at launch, but fall quickly after that. i see 7 million in 2017.

Legend

It hard to judge this. People don't seem to be talking about it.  Ill give 4.5 for the first year.
Personally I see it selling quite well first month but I expect it to fall off a cliff quite quickly.

4m in 2017
I estimate 4.5 million in the first year which is not a bad number for Nintendo.

I can make small predictions too!!!

Maybe 3m.

Most of us in this thread will probably be wrong, but all of you are already wrong!

4.7 million YTD

the-pi-guy

Happy to be wrong.

It's a really tricky one to judge. I have no idea how much interest it has from the casual market.

I'll say 9m in 2017
It depends Japan and how much Nintendo can manufacture.  10 million first year.
These ones will probably be the best.  

At 5m already, I can guarantee that. Probably reach 7.5m by the end of the next fiscal quarter.  Might be looking at 11m.

Cute Pikachu

Jul 26, 2017, 08:07 PM Last Edit: Jul 26, 2017, 08:09 PM by Cute Pikachu
Oh definitely, the Switch should have a great July due to Amazon, Walmart, and Bestbuy have big restocks a few times weekly. Splatoon 2 and MHXX will push hardware in Japan obviously. And EU will also get a boost due to Splatoon 2 being a big game in France(sold 300k there on Wii U(only 850k lifetime btw))
I thinkit will be 2.5 million July-September and 4.5 million October-December and be at 11.7 million at the end of 2017.
Which would be an excellent start.
The Vizioneck Nintendo Fanboy!

Switch Software Sales Guide:
http://vizioneck.com/forum/index.php?topic=5895.msg218699#new

Xevross

Woah why did people predict so low for Switch? :o

My 9m will probably be the closest. As expected of course ;D

the-pi-guy

Jul 26, 2017, 09:07 PM Last Edit: Jul 26, 2017, 09:24 PM by the-pi-guy
Woah why did people predict so low for Switch? :o

My 9m will probably be the closest. As expected of course ;D
My prediction was kind of a joke (I wanted to make a small prediction in small text), but I was also a little serious and it's because of the Wii U.  Literally every Nintendo home console has sold worse than the previous one, except for the Wii.
I kind of expected it to continue that pattern, especially with how down some people here were about the Switch. 

Although I was hopeful it would turn it around.  I was prepared for the worst. 

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