Elon Musk will be presenting an update of their ITS plans on the 29th.
Current predictions are that focus has shifted to an "ITSy." This half scale version of the ITS will have 21 engines instead of 42 and still be the strongest rocket ever built, but it's focused more on initial Mars trips instead of full scale colonization.
There are a few reasons why this makes sense:
- Fully ITS will cost billions of dollars while this will cost less billions. Overall costs more for both vehicle designs but there's less financial risk at each stage.
- ITSy will be used for commercial launches around Earth and pay for itself. With both first and second stage recovery, it should be cheaper than Falcon Heavy for big satellites. Full ITS was only planned for Mars missions.
- ITSy can function as a test bed for the full scale design. It'll still have all the same elements involved such as in orbit refueling, Mars refueling, and landing on the launch pad.
- The carbon fiber tank for the full scale ITS ruptured during testing. This could be a sign that the tank designs are not ready yet and need more time to solve the problems. ITSy could use more standard fuel tanks and make SpaceX keep progressing while waiting for carbon fiber to catch up.
- NASA is planning commercial contracts for the moon. SpaceX could bid ITSy as a lunar lander and have NASA pay for most of the funding, similar to how Dragon and Falcon 9 reusability were developed. ITSy could land significant fuel on the Moon and return to Earth for a fraction of the cost of other methods.
- ITSy will be ~9 meters in diameter instead of the 12 meter full scale ITS. This is small enough that ITSy could be created in existing SpaceX factories without the need of constructing new buildings.
- It's more realistic to build launch pads that support both Falcon and ITSy. Boca Chica in Texas is being built to support ITSy and will be ready in 2019.
This sounds like a good step for SpaceX, can't wait to see what they've come up with!
This sounds like a good step for SpaceX, can't wait to see what they've come up with!
Sweetest thing imo is that this rocket might launch extremely soon, maybe even in 2019 if "Elon time" doesn't apply.
The raptor engine is the hardest part of the design and it's nearing completion. Blue Origin is building the New Glenn...
(https://d3tz0vqy2dklh0.cloudfront.net/themes/site_theme/images/new-glenn/reusability.jpg)
...and its BE-4 engine is seemingly a bit behind Raptor in development. Plus they're still building the building to create the New Glenn.
(https://d3tz0vqy2dklh0.cloudfront.net/themes/site_theme/images/new-glenn/facility-3.png)
Since Blue Origin is still confident in 2020 for their first New Glenn flight, a 2019 ITSy launch seems possible to me.
Starlink (http://www.trademarkia.com/starlink-87576978.html) was just trademarked by SpaceX.
Maybe the internet constellation will be a considerable part of this talk.
So close!!!
Some rumors suggest that the ITSy could use the small raptor that was test fired last year. This could get the first ITS version flying incredibly soon. Then the engine would slowly be scaled up in performance, like what happened with Falcon.
Holy moly I screwed up with the time conversion. This is tomorrow!!! It's only on the 29th for non americans.
Q&A after the show was canceled. I wonder why ::)
Who said Mars?
Instagram
(https://www.instagram.com/p/BZm88uhg1yN/)
(https://instagram.fapa1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/t51.2885-15/e35/21985302_390198441397684_1537615312923394048_n.jpg)
Yup that's itsy.
4 way symmetry instead of 3. More defined landing wings. Observation deck is now two levels. No engine bells visible. Pin like landing legs.
Instagram
(https://www.instagram.com/p/BZm_FXPg6YZ/?taken-by=elonmusk)
(https://instagram.fapa1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/t51.2885-15/e35/22071306_1845988779048871_1542263683013410816_n.jpg)
Mars still too.
I bet we'll find out who bought the Moon tickets too.
These have such a retro-futurism look to them. I absolutely love the fun of it.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DK3OJyFU8AExXPV.jpg:large)
This is bigger than E3 lol.
Music is live!
Show is live!!!
Still no official name.
Elon sounds really excited!
ITSy will replace Falcon and Dragon.
Blowing up video of the tank!!!!!!!! ;D
Seems like raptor was downscaled.
BFR ship has two landing engines, one's redundant.
He's really emotional. I think/hope it's good emotions.
ITSy 150 tons to orbit fully reusable without refuelling.
9 meters wide, 106 meters tall.
250 tons expendable
31 raptor engines at bade. 5400 tons thrust.
Can return 50 tons of payload back to Earth.
40 passenger cabins! Seems like they've worked on the inside layout.
5-6 per cabin max, 2-3 normally. Still 100 people to Mars per ship.
4 vacuum engines, 2 atmospheric engines. Both engines used or landing.
Oh cool refilling!!!!!!
End to end docking. Same mating system as ship to booster. Ullage system for propellant transfer.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOH!!!
BFR cheaper than a falcon 1 cost!!!!!!!
150 tons to Mars.
Oh crazy. Plan to "discontinue" Falcon and Dragon before BFR first flight, thanks to reusability.
Chomp up space debri. ::)
Docks with the ISS, makes the ISS look tiny ::)
Moon and back without moon refueling.
20-50 tons back from Mars.
2022 Mars cargo landing!!!
2 landings same time(ish)
6-9 months till they start building the first ship.
2024 goal: 2 cargo landings and 2 crew landings.
Yup he wants to colonize mars 8)
Oh so they are doing suborbital hops on earth. :P
( i didn't like this idea)
End of the show. Pretty awesome.
Seems like that last bit was just a far off possibility to get people interested, not something actively being pursued.
It's crazy to me that 2024 is STILL the goal for humans on Mars. That date hasn't slipped for ~3 years now which is awesome.
Also crazy that they're betting the farm on BFR.
It's insane that they're going to "cannibalize" their own products to make this possible.
Tooling for BFR has already been ordered. Full construction should begin in 6-9 months. Wow.
edt: higher res images
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DK3fhlVVwAEqDom.jpg:orig)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DK3fwUhUIAAoYil.jpg:orig)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DK3fQCPVwAAWJen.jpg:orig)
(wow)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DK3e-P9UEAEECnC.jpg:orig)
BFR might stand for big fudgy rocket, which is probably the most amazing thing about this ;D
BFR might stand for big fudgy rocket, which is probably the most amazing thing about this ;D
Yeah Big fudgy Rocket has been their internal codename since the start. Will probably be changed before the first flight though.
Also I still think it's crazy that SpaceX is going all in on BFR. If it fails for whatever reason, it'll mean the death of SpaceX as we know it. That's such a huge risk but it's also pretty awesome that they're going to try. If they succeed, it'll be even more disruptive than their first 9 years.