(http://www.x5management.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/sales.jpg)
It's 2018. Is it a good year? I don't know. Is it a good year for Sony? Hell yes! In just a few days (April 20),
God of War will be unleashed upon the world (hopefully not bringing Ragnarök with it), and what a game that is turning out to be (predicted 93-95 on Meta*). Then just over a month later (May 25),
Detroit: Become Human will show us how androids intend to take over and leave
@Legend unable to finish his game. People are saying it's David Cage's best game in 2018*. When Summer will finally be over (September 7), with its sun blocking our view on our TVs, keeping us from playing games,
SPIDER-MAN will leap into our PS4s swinging in a game analysts are predicting will break all sales records**.
Understandably, Sony is excited. Are you?Let's forget about the hype for just a few seconds and predict the lifetime sales of those three giants of 2018. Let's say we give a range of 0.5m units. Example:
God of War - 100-100.5m sales
Detroit: Become Human - 50-50.5m sales
Spider-Man - 202-202.5m sales
*citation needed**ResetEra.com
Lifetime?
God of War 12m
Detroit 4m
Spiderman 16m
2018?
God of war 9m
Detroit 3m
Spiderman 12m
First week?
God of war 3m
Detroit 1m
Spiderman 3.5m
Complete guesses
Lifetime?
God of War 12m
Detroit 4m
Spiderman 16m
2018?
God of war 9m
Detroit 3m
Spiderman 12m
First week?
God of war 3m
Detroit 1m
Spiderman 3.5m
Complete guesses
Lifetime, boy! It's right there in the OP
Lifetime, boy! It's right there in the OP
Yeah but why not add more. We'll never find out lifetime sales anyway so what's the point in predicting that.
Yeah but why not add more. We'll never find out lifetime sales anyway so what's the point in predicting that.
You'll see... in time
You'll see... in time
...In a lifetime
Anyway all values are +-.25 million
GOW 11.2 million
Detroit 3.1 million
Spiderman 7.7 million
...In a lifetime
Anyway all values are +-.25 million
GOW 11.2 million
Detroit 3.1 million
Spiderman 7.7 million
You are seriously low-balling for Spiderman I think. The game is going to be huge.
You are seriously low-balling for Spiderman I think. The game is going to be huge.
7 million is huge! Game looks great but Insomniac has not made a mega seller in a long time, maybe ever. Spiderman IP will bump it up but imo it's too early to really know if this will be the studio's big break (similar to Horizon for Guerilla) or if it'll just sell off the IP alone.
If anything I'd bet I'm vastly over predicting GOW.
...In a lifetime
Anyway all values are +-.25 million
GOW 11.2 million
Detroit 3.1 million
Spiderman 7.7 million
You are seriously low-balling for Spiderman I think. The game is going to be huge.
Indeed.
Definitely 10m+ imo. It doesn't even need to review well (but I think it will) to get crazy sales to start with I think.
God of War - 12m
Detroit: Become Human - 4m
Spider-Man - 10m
Any last minute predictions for GoW, when reviews are taken into account?
I stand by my guess.
Mine:
GOW 12-12.5 million
Detroit 2.5-3 million
Spiderman 11-11.5 million
I think GoW's launch will be huge. Like 6-7m first week (shipments, sales maybe 5-6m).
Maybe I'd adjust mine slightly up but I think it seems about right.
Mine:
GOW 12-12.5 million
Detroit 2.5-3 million
Spiderman 11-11.5 million
I think GoW's launch will be huge. Like 6-7m first week (shipments, sales maybe 5-6m).
Nah that's too crazy high. I don't think a Sony game has even sold 3m first week (except maybe a GT). I could see 4m, but any higher would be bonkers.
I'm gonna take Xev's and make some adjustments.
Lifetime:
God of War 13.5m
With the recent success of Uncharted 4, I think GoW will be huge. 7 million at minimum for the year. Uncharted 4 is just monstrous. It like destroyed years of sales for previous titles in only the first 7 months. Assuming GoW sees similar monster sales, it should safely see 11-12m which is about where everyone is. Just thinking that PS4 still has a few years on the market, I'm gonna be extra optimistic here.
Detroit: 4.5m
I think if it is well received, it could be around 5m. But if it scores closer to Beyond, I think it'll do closer to 2.5-3m, and that's probably what it'll do... Overall, everyone is doing about this range. I'm gonna be optimistic and say 4.5m
Spiderman 15m
This one is tough. It could be a monstrous game, if it plays off Spiderman IP, ends up being a fantastic game. If they play their cards right, this could end up being a 15+m game. If it doesn't end up doing that, it could end up being a 7m game, which is still fantastic. I'm going to assume it'll reach the hype. I'm feeling optimistic on this day! (Although perhaps not as optimistic as Xev.)
2018:
God of war 9.5m
Detroit 3.5m
Spiderman 8m (Spiderman releases towards the end of year, and I think if it ends up being awesome, it'll have ridiculously good legs.)
First week:
God of war 3m
Detroit 2m
Spiderman 4.5m
Maybe I'd adjust mine slightly up but I think it seems about right.
Nah that's too crazy high. I don't think a Sony game has even sold 3m first week (except maybe a GT). I could see 4m, but any higher would be bonkers.
3m shipments definitely with GT5 I think.
GoW has always been huge in the US, where PS4 is now king. GoW I-II released at the tail end of the PS2 era so their sales are not a good barometer. GoWIII had a very big launch for a PS3 game (like 1.2-1.5m probably).
Heard it here first!
Uncharted 4 launched with like 2-2.5m retail only (consumer sales). Probably close to 3m with digital included (yup, 2.7m first week: http://www.ign.com/articles/2016/05/23/uncharted-4-sold-27-million-units-in-its-first-week).
For comparison, Horizon Zero Dawn is still around the 6 million range.
3m shipments definitely with GT5 I think.
GoW has always been huge in the US, where PS4 is now king. GoW I-II released at the tail end of the PS2 era so their sales are not a good barometer. GoWIII had a very big launch for a PS3 game (like 1.2-1.5m probably).
Heard it here first!
Uncharted 4 launched with like 2-2.5m retail only (consumer sales). Probably close to 3m with digital included (yup, 2.7m first week: http://www.ign.com/articles/2016/05/23/uncharted-4-sold-27-million-units-in-its-first-week).
Yeah I was basing mine off Uncharted 4. I expect God of War to do a bit better but not that much.
For comparison, Horizon Zero Dawn is still around the 6 million range.
Horizon is way over 7 million, probably at 8 million by now. It was announced as 7.6m sell through 2 months ago!
For comparison, Horizon Zero Dawn is still around the 6 million range.
Wut, nah it's already past 7.6m.
Horizon: Zero Dawn sales pass 7.6 million on its first birthday | GamesBeat (https://venturebeat.com/2018/02/28/horizon-zero-dawn-sales-pass-7-6-million-on-its-first-birthday/)
Horizon is way over 7 million, probably at 8 million by now. It was announced as 7.6m sell through 2 months ago!
Maybe I misheard them from the gdc talk.
But still I said AROUND!
Horizon is also a freak of nature. That's monstrous sales for a new IP, especially for GG.
GoW almost certainly will be monstrous.
Horizon is also a freak of nature. That's monstrous sales for a new IP, especially for GG.
GoW almost certainly will be monstrous.
Yeah it is, incredible sales. Should inch close to 10m when all is said and done. Sequel will be huge as well.
too lazy to do all the games right now, but for GoW I'm going with 4.5 million first week and 12.5 million lifetime
Changing my God of War first week from 3m to 2m, but I guess its too late for that now.
If they announce 2 weeks, like they did for Horizon, I'll guess 2.8m. Strong legs due to WoM, and beats Horizon's 2 weeks. We'll see I guess.
Changing my God of War first week from 3m to 2m, but I guess its too late for that now.
If they announce 2 weeks, like they did for Horizon, I'll guess 2.8m. Strong legs due to WoM, and beats Horizon's 2 weeks. We'll see I guess.
Eh 2m is way too low I think. Don't judge based on UK sales alone
Eh 2m is way too low I think. Don't judge based on UK sales alone
I'm not. I just lowered my prediction based off UK sales. If I was judging off UK sales alone I'd say 1.4m (half of Uncharted 4), but I know it'll be better relatively.
I'm not. I just lowered my prediction based off UK sales. If I was judging off UK sales alone I'd say 1.4m (half of Uncharted 4), but I know it'll be better relatively.
It's tracking to top UC4 in the US. With how miniscule the UK sales are in comparison, and extra appeal in northern Europe, I think 3m isn't out of reach yet
It's tracking to top UC4 in the US. With how miniscule the UK sales are in comparison, and extra appeal in northern Europe, I think 3m isn't out of reach yet
No its not out of reach, but I think first week sales are more likely to be closer to 2m than 3m at this point.
No its not out of reach, but I think first week sales are more likely to be closer to 2m than 3m at this point.
We'll probably see soon enough
Has gow been getting a lot of marketing? Hopefully they didn't rely on word of mouth too much.
Has gow been getting a lot of marketing? Hopefully they didn't rely on word of mouth too much.
Yes
Mine:
GOW 12-12.5 million
Detroit 2.5-3 million
Spiderman 11-11.5 million
I think GoW's launch will be huge. Like 6-7m first week (shipments, sales maybe 5-6m).
Trololol. I was counting 7 days!
Maybe I'd adjust mine slightly up but I think it seems about right.
Nah that's too crazy high. I don't think a Sony game has even sold 3m first week (except maybe a GT). I could see 4m, but any higher would be bonkers.
Pez made us look like fools
My 12m gow prediction looking solid
considering I said 4.5 million first week me and pezus showed you all up. fudgy sony haters! 8)
But really it did insane numbers.
considering I said 4.5 million first week me and pezus showed you all up. fudgy sony haters! 8)
But really it did insane numbers.
Well me and Pi both said 3 million, so we were way more accurate than you and were still predicting the best PS4 exclusive launch :P
No its not out of reach, but I think first week sales are more likely to be closer to 2m than 3m at this point.
Well me and Pi both said 3 million, so we were way more accurate than you and were still predicting the best PS4 exclusive launch :P
Keep trying, fanboy!!