NPD March 2017 Results (SW 906k 2nd Best Launch Ever, PS4 ~390k, XB1 > 225k)

Started by ethomaz, Apr 13, 2017, 01:23 PM

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ethomaz

GAF prediction results out.

1. Zedark
[NSW] 950k
[PS4] 360k
[XB1] 200k

2. Gaspard
[NSW] 910K
[PS4] 300K
[XB1] 190K

3. BeforeU
[NSW] 1M
[PS4] 340K
[XB1] 230K

4. Opt1kon_
[NSW] 798K
[PS4] 396K
[XB1] 186K

To Zedark be first his PS4/XB1 numbers needs to be better than Gaspard number by at least 40k... so PS4 is probably close to 360k and XB1 to 200k.

Xevross

GAF prediction results out.

1. Zedark
[NSW] 950k
[PS4] 360k
[XB1] 200k

2. Gaspard
[NSW] 910K
[PS4] 300K
[XB1] 190K

3. BeforeU
[NSW] 1M
[PS4] 340K
[XB1] 230K

4. Opt1kon_
[NSW] 798K
[PS4] 396K
[XB1] 186K

To Zedark be first his PS4/XB1 numbers needs to be better than Gaspard number by at least 40k... so PS4 is probably close to 360k and XB1 to 200k.
PS4>345k from this. Don't think I can work out anything else more concrete.

ethomaz

PS4>345k from this. Don't think I can work out anything else more concrete.
Not bad... not bad.

But I predicted 300k :(

ethomaz

The first guy in Prediction is estimating... he checked others prediction that are of course below the TOP4.

PS4 ~390k
XB1 > 225k

NeoGAF - View Single Post -  March 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 11th

Quote
Quote
Originally Posted by Zedark
 
 

 
 Edit: nvm, we can't for certain yet. I made a slight logic error, which makes discerning the numbers no longer approximately possible. My reasoning went that numbers 3 and 4 are very close together (it can be shown from labaronx' numbers that it is less than 15k), and that their Switch predictions are wrong by roughly (within 12k) the same amount, so from there we might be able to work something out. My error was that I wanted to take the average between the XB1 and PS4 entries to get the NPD approximate results, but that doesn't work in practice. Also, PS4 is at the very least 330k, and XB1 is 200k+, otherwise I would have lost to Gaspard.  Seeing as Gaspard is at least 10k ahead of number 3 and 4, and 15k ahead of labaronx, 3 and 4 must be almost the same, and furthermore PS4 > 335k and XB1 > 225k. This means that XB1 skews towards 3 by at least 39k and at most 44k. Taking the lower difference, PS4 must be around 39k closer to 4, so PS4 ~ 388k would apply. For The 44k case, PS4 ~ 390k. This is of course not taking into account the 12k Switch differences between 3 and 4, which changes things a bit. Labaronx' numbers:

 
I checked these numbers against the other predictions, and PS4 ~ 390k and XB1 > 225k follows logically and doesn't contradict the ranking (i.e., no one overtakes me with these results, for any arbitrary XB1 numbers above 225k). This is the best I can do atm.
 

Xevross

The first guy in Prediction is estimating... he checked others prediction that are of course below the TOP4.

PS4 ~390k
XB1 > 225k

NeoGAF - View Single Post -  March 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 11th
I checked these numbers against the other predictions, and PS4 ~ 390k and XB1 > 225k follows logically and doesn't contradict the ranking (i.e., no one overtakes me with these results, for any arbitrary XB1 numbers above 225k). This is the best I can do atm.
 
That seems like a good estimate to me. So PS4>345k and XB1>225k is what we can say for sure, while PS4 is likely around 390k. Nice.

BananaKing

So for the first three months in the USA. How much are the estimates?

ethomaz

So for the first three months in the USA. How much are the estimates?
PS4: 210k + (> 395k) + (~390k) = ~995k
XB1: 160k + (< 240k) + (>225k) = ~625k
SW: 906k

Estimate not that accurate because the < and > can change a bit the numbers.

I did a better post in GAF.

Using these estimates for 2017...

PS4 > 995k (Up > 22% YoY) *
SW ~906k
XB1 ~625k (Up ~20% YoY) **

* PS4 can be only > because Feb and Mar are estimates with >.
** XB1 is around because estimate in Feb was < and Mar >.

ethomaz

NeoGAF - View Single Post -  NPD Sales Results For March 2017 (Up2: Year to date charts, platform specific charts)

Quote
Quote
Originally Posted by Welfare
 
 

 
 Any update on how PS4/XB1 are doing compared to PS3/360 as of month 41?

 
+29.8%
 That's.... that's pretty darn good.
 

Legend


Raven

This gen is solid!
Like, rock solid. Incredibly stiff. Quite rigid, even.








rocks.

SWORDF1SH


Legend

Expect that to go over 30% once VizionEck releases on PS5.
fixed

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