Xbox One Family Predicted to sell 63 Million(XBX overtakes XBS eventually)

[Cute Pikachu]

Microsoft put a huge focus on its upcoming Xbox One X during the company's E3 briefing, highlighting numerous 4K-enhanced titles among 22 games that will have at least temporary exclusivity on the Xbox One. While the system's $499 price tag will make it a tough sell, the Xbox One X should still manage upwards of 20 million units by 2022, according to DFC Intelligence.

The firm has today issued a new brief that forecasts 17 million units sold by the end of 2021. Those 17 million will bring the Xbox One family of systems up to 63 million, DFC says. It's worth noting that Sony's PlayStation 4 already stands at more than 60 million units sold worldwide, with the beefier PS4 Pro accounting for about 20% of sales since it launched late last year.

The problem for Xbox One X is that it's ultimately designed to cater to a demographic that's inherently quite small. "Xbox One X is an expensive system designed to appeal to a fairly narrow demographic of gamers who want high quality graphics but do not want to spend money on a high-end PC," says DFC analyst David Cole. "The challenge is that is a fairly small addressable market, even as sales of 4k television sets start to soar. Both the Nintendo Switch or Sony PlayStation 4 offer a very strong value proposition that consumers seem to be flocking to."

More here: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...7m-by-2021-dfc

[Cute Pikachu]

So yes apparently the Xbox one(great console) will sell 30 million more on backs of no notable exclusives and a $500 upgrade.

[Xevross]

How long are they expecting this to last for? I guess with X they don't need a new console for at least 4 years

[Legend]

Seems possible. Sales of XBOX One S will be starting to dry up while Xbonx will be growing over the next few years.

[Dr. Pezus]

Seems about right. Dont think itll top 65m

[Raven]

I have my doubts. First of all, the farther out you go, the shakier a projection becomes and this one seems to lean towards optimism. By 2022 we'll probably have new consoles out and I'm going to guess they will have already been around for at least 2 years. Unless your console is already selling very well, this has a habit of essentially killing your current flagship platform.

Anything could happen with Switch, but currently it looks like it will be a great success and will likely have a greater impact on Xbox One sales than PlayStation 4 sales. We've already seen the impact Switch has had on the Amazon charts for Xbox One and NPD numbers so far this year are nothing special for it, to put it one way. No doubt that a lot of this is due to Xbox One lacking exclusive content, having an image of having lost to PlayStation 4, and Switch being a hybrid that puts it in a position to not exactly feel like a competitor and more of a potential companion to people who otherwise would not have been interested in buying another "full console".

In order for this projection to pan out, and assuming the next generation starts in 2020, Xbox One would have to sell 30 million consoles over the next 3 years, because anything after that will likely be a trickle. It would have to average 10 million per year. It didn't even average that in its first 3 years. I see this console maybe hitting 50 million by then and ultimately ending up about 10 million short of this projection.