Predict sales of Sony's big 2018 hitters

Started by Dr. Pezus, Apr 09, 2018, 01:36 PM

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Dr. Pezus

Apr 09, 2018, 01:36 PM Last Edit: Apr 09, 2018, 02:10 PM by Dr. Pezus



It's 2018. Is it a good year? I don't know.
Is it a good year for Sony? Hell yes!

In just a few days (April 20), God of War will be unleashed upon the world (hopefully not bringing Ragnarök with it), and what a game that is turning out to be (predicted 93-95 on Meta*). Then just over a month later (May 25), Detroit: Become Human will show us how androids intend to take over and leave @Legend unable to finish his game. People are saying it's David Cage's best game in 2018*. When Summer will finally be over (September 7), with its sun blocking our view on our TVs, keeping us from playing games, SPIDER-MAN will leap into our PS4s swinging in a game analysts are predicting will break all sales records**.

Understandably, Sony is excited. Are you?
Let's forget about the hype for just a few seconds and predict the lifetime sales of those three giants of 2018. Let's say we give a range of 0.5m units.

Example:
God of War - 100-100.5m sales
Detroit: Become Human - 50-50.5m sales
Spider-Man - 202-202.5m sales



*citation needed
**ResetEra.com

Xevross

Lifetime?

God of War 12m
Detroit 4m
Spiderman 16m

2018?

God of war 9m
Detroit 3m
Spiderman 12m

First week?

God of war 3m
Detroit 1m
Spiderman 3.5m

Complete guesses

Dr. Pezus

Lifetime?

God of War 12m
Detroit 4m
Spiderman 16m

2018?

God of war 9m
Detroit 3m
Spiderman 12m

First week?

God of war 3m
Detroit 1m
Spiderman 3.5m

Complete guesses
Lifetime, boy! It's right there in the OP

Xevross

Lifetime, boy! It's right there in the OP
Yeah but why not add more. We'll never find out lifetime sales anyway so what's the point in predicting that.

Dr. Pezus

Yeah but why not add more. We'll never find out lifetime sales anyway so what's the point in predicting that.
You'll see... in time

Legend

You'll see... in time
...In a lifetime


Anyway all values are +-.25 million

GOW 11.2 million
Detroit 3.1 million
Spiderman 7.7 million


Xevross

...In a lifetime


Anyway all values are +-.25 million

GOW 11.2 million
Detroit 3.1 million
Spiderman 7.7 million
You are seriously low-balling for Spiderman I think. The game is going to be huge.

Legend

You are seriously low-balling for Spiderman I think. The game is going to be huge.
7 million is huge! Game looks great but Insomniac has not made a mega seller in a long time, maybe ever. Spiderman IP will bump it up but imo it's too early to really know if this will be the studio's big break (similar to Horizon for Guerilla) or if it'll just sell off the IP alone.

If anything I'd bet I'm vastly over predicting GOW.

Dr. Pezus

...In a lifetime


Anyway all values are +-.25 million

GOW 11.2 million
Detroit 3.1 million
Spiderman 7.7 million


You are seriously low-balling for Spiderman I think. The game is going to be huge.
Indeed.
Definitely 10m+ imo. It doesn't even need to review well (but I think it will) to get crazy sales to start with I think.

Kerotan

God of War - 12m
Detroit: Become Human - 4m
Spider-Man - 10m

Dr. Pezus

Any last minute predictions for GoW, when reviews are taken into account?

Legend

I stand by my guess.

Dr. Pezus

Apr 12, 2018, 01:02 PM Last Edit: Apr 12, 2018, 01:04 PM by Dr. Pezus
Mine:
GOW 12-12.5 million
Detroit 2.5-3 million
Spiderman 11-11.5 million

I think GoW's launch will be huge. Like 6-7m first week (shipments, sales maybe 5-6m).

Xevross

Maybe I'd adjust mine slightly up but I think it seems about right.

Mine:
GOW 12-12.5 million
Detroit 2.5-3 million
Spiderman 11-11.5 million

I think GoW's launch will be huge. Like 6-7m first week (shipments, sales maybe 5-6m).
Nah that's too crazy high. I don't think a Sony game has even sold 3m first week (except maybe a GT). I could see 4m, but any higher would be bonkers.

the-pi-guy

I'm gonna take Xev's and make some adjustments.  


Lifetime:

God of War 13.5m

With the recent success of Uncharted 4, I think GoW will be huge.  7 million at minimum for the year.  Uncharted 4 is just monstrous.  It like destroyed years of sales for previous titles in only the first 7 months.  Assuming GoW sees similar monster sales, it should safely see 11-12m which is about where everyone is.  Just thinking that PS4 still has a few years on the market, I'm gonna be extra optimistic here.  

Detroit: 4.5m  

I think if it is well received, it could be around 5m.  But if it scores closer to Beyond, I think it'll do closer to 2.5-3m, and that's probably what it'll do...  Overall, everyone is doing about this range.  I'm gonna be optimistic and say 4.5m

Spiderman 15m

This one is tough.  It could be a monstrous game, if it plays off Spiderman IP, ends up being a fantastic game.  If they play their cards right, this could end up being a 15+m game.  If it doesn't end up doing that, it could end up being a 7m game, which is still fantastic.  I'm going to assume it'll reach the hype.  I'm feeling optimistic on this day!  (Although perhaps not as optimistic as Xev.)



2018:

God of war 9.5m
Detroit 3.5m
Spiderman 8m  (Spiderman releases towards the end of year, and I think if it ends up being awesome, it'll have ridiculously good legs.)

First week:

God of war 3m
Detroit 2m
Spiderman 4.5m