Hello all,
I'd like to post my predictions for the December 2015 NPD Release.
The NPD Group's December 2015 U.S. Games Industry Sales Report covers Hardware, Software and Accessories so I will try to predict dollar values for all three categories as well as absolute unit values for certain popular items within these categories.
HARDWARE - $1.33 Billion
In December 2014 a total of $1.31 billion was spent on 7th gen and 8th gen console hardware according to The NPD Group. More than 4.5 million units of hardware were sold through to end users with approximately 3.9 million of those units attributed to 8th gen consoles (PS4, XB1, WIU, 3DS, Vita). I expect last generation console sell through to decline significantly year on year but to be partially offset by increased sales of 8th gen consoles, primarily the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One. I believe that the strong performance of PlayStation 4 and Xbox One will boost the total sales value by a very small amount, up from $1.31 billion to $1.33 billion which is effectively flat year on year.
PlayStation 4- 1.70 Million (+63% YOY)
The PlayStation 4 is set for a record month in December 2015. The console bought back it's $299 offer for consumers at all retailers between the 6th to the 19th. This price drop not only applied to the Uncharted Collection bundle but also to the Star Wars Battlefront bundle. Retailers have noted that they have received a huge number of Battlefront bundles and that the bundle has performed exceptionally well thanks to the heavy promotion from EA and the release of the Star Wars movie on the 17th of December. $299 is the lowest price that the PlayStation 4 has been and so this will have certainly driven sales during the busy Christmas shopping period, December is also traditionally higher than November and whilst recent November's have been almost as high it is very rare that December is lower than November. December is a 5 week period compared to November's 4 weeks and I believe that this coupled with the fact that the $299 price was available for 13 days in December versus 3 days in November means that the PlayStation 4 will receive a more than 13% increase month on month leading to total sell through of 1.75 million.
Xbox One - 1.45 Million (+12% YOY)
The Xbox One is also set for a record month this year thanks to the console also receiving its lowest price ever. The $50 price cut on all bundles applied between the 9th and the 26th which meant that you could buy a base model Xbox One for $299 during the 18 day period in December. The deal did start 3 days later than Sony's deal but Microsoft had a full extra week at $299 after Sony increased the price on the 19th. Despite this I do not believe that the Xbox One will be able to match the PlayStation 4 sell through numbers for December as I am of the opinion that the Battlefront bundle will have been a stronger sell for Sony. Also the only reason the Xbox One outsold the PlayStation 4 last year was due to being considerably cheaper than the Sony console, this year the PS4 was sold at the same price as the Xbox One and provided a much more attractive package, hence why November was a win for Sony. In total I believe the PlayStation 4 will outsell the Xbox One by approximately 300,000 units this December in the US.
Wii U from Nintendo - 0.5 Million (-14% YOY)
The Wii U has struggled to achieve high sales in December. Last year the console sold approximately 580,000 units to end users in the U.S. which was up year on year but still nowhere near the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One which both achieved sales of more than 1 million units each. 'Splatoon' has been a huge success as a new IP but the $50 price cut on the Splatoon and Smash bundle in November 2015 failed to boost sales up over November 2014's total. Whilst Splatoon continues to see success I believe that the game is performing well among the current install base in the U.S. and is not bringing in much of a new audience for the console. I also believe the same of Xenoblade Chronicles X and therefore am predicting a slight drop in sales for the Nintendo Wii U in December 2015.
3DS, Vita and Last Gen
Not much to say here. Despite the launch of a brand new 3DS model I believe that sales for the dedicated handheld console will be down year on year, further reflecting the decline of dedicated handheld consoles in Western markets. The PlayStation Vita remains to be dead in the USA and whilst sales will no doubt be higher in December I don't expect the actual number to be anything significant. PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii U sales actually accounted for a healthy 500k+ sales in December 2014 and as mentioned above I believe that this number will decline significantly in December 2015. PSP and DS are dead.
SOFTWARE - $1.20 Billion (-4% YOY)
I believe that spend on Packaged Unit sales at Retail will decline 4% year on year due to the lack of physical game releases in 2015 but be offset by digital game sales (not counted in the NPD report). Retail sales continue to decline in the U.S. as the number of Packaged games being released continue to decline and as more games are bought via digital download.
MAJOR SOFTWARE RELEASES IN THE DECEMBER 2015 NPD REPORTING PERIOD (36 DAYS OF TRACKING, 2014-11-28 THROUGH 2015-01-02)
JUST CAUSE 3 - PS4, XB1, PC (33 days of tracking) / 350k
Just Cause 3 is the third installment of the open world action-adventure video game series developed by Avalanche Studios and published by Square Enix. The series did not reach mainstream success until after the launch of Just Cause 2 which sold in more than 6 million units worldwide. Just Cause 2 saw the majority of its success on PC where it sold through just under 4 million units. The console version in the U.S. actually performed very poorly with it failing to entering the top 10 in the NPD report for March 2010. The console version also took almost a year to sell more than 500,000 units which really shows you how poorly the game sold in the U.S. during 2010. Awareness for the Just Cause series has grown over the past 5 years but I do not believe that the game will open with huge sales in the U.S. and therefore will once again fall outside the top 10.
RAINBOW SIX SIEGE - PS4, XB1, PC (33 days of tracking) / 700k
The Rainbow Six series from Ubisoft has been one that has been an average selling franchise in that it has never performed amazingly well but it's far from being a small niche game. Siege is the latest game in the series and comes 7 years after 'Rainbow Six Vegas 2' which was the last console game in the series to come out. Rainbow Six Vegas 2 sold through approximately 907,000 units on PS3/360 in the U.S. during its first month on sale and went to sell just short of 2 million units LTD. Rainbow Six Vegas, released two years earlier, had a much lower launch month but also went to sell just short of 2 million unit sales (excluding PSP version). Therefore I believe that whilst there will be some hype for a new Rainbow Six game, the new title will perform slightly worse than Vegas 2 did in the beginning but should go on to sell around 2 million units or so as word of mouth spreads.
XENOBLADE CHRONICLES X - Wii U (30 days of tracking) / 250k
Xenoblade is Nintendo's flagship title for the Wii U this holiday and is much anticipated by the core Nintendo userbase. The first game wasn't massive on Wii in the U.S. but there is a dedicated fanbase out there who will buy this game on day 1 and I believe that around 250,000 will be sold through during December to end users in the U.S.
OTHER SOFTWARE RELEASES DURING CY2015
Last year each game that was in the December top 10 sold more than 650,000 with the number 1 game, Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare, selling through around 2.3 million units (all numbers excluding bundles). This year I believe it's fairly clear that Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 will be the number 1 game this month, and for the year. I believe that we'll see an appearance from 3 sports games in the top 10, Madden NFL 2016, NBA 2K16 & Fifa 2016. Grand Theft Auto V should also make an appearance this month towards the bottom of the top 10 after just narrowly missing the top 10 in November. Star Wars Battlefront and Fallout 4 will hold steady in the middle of the chart. I believe Rainbow Six Siege should either just enter the top 10 or be just outside.
ACCESSORIES - $730 Million (+7% YOY)
I believe that Accessories will see a boost thanks to increased spending in the Toys to Life sector, primarily on Disney, Lego, Skylanders and Amiibo. I believe that the Star Wars movie will considerably boost sales of Disney Infinity 3.0 software and Toy figures. Lego Dimensions should also see continued success due to the various game packs available to buy and Skylanders should receive a sizeable holiday boost. Amiibo should see even bigger boosts due to the release of new toys during this period. Traditional accessory sales should also be up due to the release of the Xbox One elite controller which sold out straight away.
TOTAL : $3.26 Billion
The prediction I have says that revenue generated from Video Game sales in December 2015 will essentially be flat year on year. Software should decline whilst a boost in Accessory sales will offset that decline.