Unless Nintendo starts to heavily rerelease Wii U games early next year on the Switch, like Smash or Mario Maker, games that should actually have a tangible effect on sales will probably not come until the end of the year (Pokemon, maybe Animal Crossing or something).What do you expect the 3DS to reach?
I reckon that once the droughts hit in the first months of 2018 sales will slow down, especially since the honeymoon period will be over by then, I doubt filler content like Kirby or Yoshi will be able to keep up momentum at that point. I still don't see the Switch outselling the 3DS lifetime.
I generally agree but it takes time to build a narrative. 6 months without any big Switch games will not matter too much unless PS4/PC get some back to back GOTYs during that period.